Hail in Oklahoma, June 1, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2001

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY FOR SUN/MON..THEN BACK TO NW FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND STRENGTHENING CAP THRU
SUN NITE. DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING ALL DAY
ACROSS OK/KS..WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/SHEAR NOW IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. MCS SHUD ORGANIZE TO OUR N/NW THIS EVENING AND SWEEP SEWD
OVERNITE WITH BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IN THE ERN ZONES. SUSPICIOUS
THAT WE MAY SEE SOME BACKBUILDING INTO THE LLJ AXIS LATE TONITE AND
SAT MORNING. IF THIS HAPPENS..ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN CENTRAL/NC OK..BUT DO NOT HAVE ENUF CONFIDENCE IN
SIZE/LOCATION OF SPECIFIC THREAT ATTM TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SAT..WHICH
SHUD SHUT THINGS OFF /AT LEAST NORTH/ AFTER OVERNITE COMPLEX HAS
MOVED AWAY.  HOWEVER..BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE RED
RIVER SAT AFTERNOON AND THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT STORMS
CUD INTITIATE ALONG IT SAT AFT/EVE.  CAP STRENGTH WILL BE INCREASING
WITH TIME AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WRLY..BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
IN ANY CASE..THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVRHEAD SAT WILL LEAD TO VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS..WHICH WILL
RESULT IN MORE STORMS THAT SHUD ORGANIZE INTO YET ANOTHER OVERNITE
COMPLEX MOVING SEWD TOWARD OK.

TRANSITION TO MORE WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUN AS
ENERGETIC TROF DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. VERY RICH MOISTURE SHUD
SURGE NWD INTO THE AREA..LEADING TO HUGE INSTABILITIES.
HOWEVER..THE RETURN TO MORE WRLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ADVECT A BLAZINGLY
HOT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /PER RECORD HEAT
CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SW/..RENDERING MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS
CAPPED. THUS..THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/CAPE/LOW CIN MAY EXIST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUN..WITH LITTLE ACTION HERE
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWINGS SWD INTO THE AREA SUN NITE/MON/MON
NITE.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE BUMPED UPWARD 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SW ZONES FOR SUN.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK HAS NO MENTION OF PRECIP
ATTM. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THESE PERIODS DRY IN AN ATTEMPT TO AVOID
YET ANOTHER FORECAST FLIP-FLOP.  HOWEVER..THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OVR THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING STORMS IN OUR LITTLE AREA OF THE WORLD.
CERTAINLY WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INTRODUCED FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES WHEN TIMING AND FOCUS FOR
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE EPISODES BECOMES CLEARER.
 MILLER

PRELIM NUMBERS..
OKC   62  78  62  85 /  60  30  40  20
HBR   63  83  64  91 /  40  30  20  20
SPS   65  87  66  95 /  30  30  20  20
GAG   58  79  62  87 /  60  10  30  20
PNC   58  76  62  83 /  70  10  50  30
DUA   62  84  66  88 /  40  30  20  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
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