Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, July 17, 2001

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
221 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2001

SUMMERTIME CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.  WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OK...EXPECT TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
HAPPENED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
100S. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE THETA-E RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST NM TO
THE NORTHEAST INDICATING THE BEST PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. BELIEVE THE DECIDING FACTOR WILL
BE ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION TO ACT AS FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPMENT. WILL WAIT TELL PRESS TIME TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF
WHERE THE BOUNDARIES ARE AND WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE...BUT AM
LEANING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BROADEN AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS. DO NOT BELIEVE THIS IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANGE TO COOL HIGH TEMPS VERY MUCH SO WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON WED AND THU. ALSO WITH NOTHING TO REMOVE THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL LOOKS GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. MODELS
BRING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH BACK WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WOULD BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WITH
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP BEING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
CWA. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL FOR NOW.

PRELIM CCF...

AMA 69/100 69/99 68 3121
DHT 67/98  67/97 67 4121

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

WOLTERS/GARCIA