Hail in North Dakota, September 1, 2001

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
200 CDT AM SAT SEPT 1 2001

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE CENTERS ON CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH IMPENDING UPSTREAM TROUGH...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
06Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE WORKING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARCING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. LATEST KMVX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED DEVELOPING
WARM ADVECTION PROFILE WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30KTS ALONG
WITH GOOD VEERING OF WINDS TO 8KFT.

.FORECAST DETAILS...
TWO DISTINCT SHOTS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY. FIRST OPPORTUNITY
THIS AM AS STRONG PUNCH OF WAA ON NOSE OF 30KT LOW-LEVEL PERHAPS
FIRES UP SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION. SECOND SHOT WILL BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND AREAL COVERAGE MARGINAL WITH
SECOND EVENT IN LIGHT OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MID-LEVEL
WARMING I.E. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL CAP. BASED ON THIS WILL RIDE
WITH CURRENT CONTINUITY WITH 30 POP THREAT. ON SUNDAY WEAK TROUGH
FINALLY SHIFTS ATTENTION INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AS WEAK HIGH OVER
THE ROCKIES RIDGES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THICKNESS REDUCTION AND 850MB
COOLING EVIDENT IN WAKE OF TROUGH ON SUNDAY. DESPITE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WIND I.E. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IT APPEARS
FWC NUMBERS ARE TOO MUCH INTO BLOW TORCH MODE. IF WE CAN MIX OUT TO
850MB...PER FORECASTED SOUNDINGS WHICH APPEARS FEASIBLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH MAV. NO MAJOR
REVISION PLANNED TO EXTENDED PACKAGE ATTM.

.FGF...NONE.

BERG