Hail in North Carolina, May 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2001

DRY AIR ACROSS OUR INLAND AREA SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HAVE SEEN A FEW CELLS DEVELOP...BUT THEY
QUICKLY DIE DOWN. TO OUR SW WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE...SHOWERS
AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE SEA BREEZE NEAR WILMINGTON AND BACK
NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND MAIN THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE SW AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OUT
OF SC. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG OUR SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SRN
COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH DEEPER ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHRTWV TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. MON
NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ADVANCING UPPER
LOW. AVN LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT THAN
ETA IS SUGGESTING. JUST PLANNING CHANCE POPS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
AT THIS POINT.  BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS LOOKS GOOD.

APPROACHING DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING AREA LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CWF: WEAK FRNT TO MV BACK TO VA BORDER BY 12Z. WINDS SWING TO S AND
SW BHND FRNT AND LASTS THRU TUE. FRNT APPROACHES FM W TUE AFTN.
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME MON NIGHT...MAY NEED SCSEC ATTM...BUT WL STAY
BLO SCA CRITERIA THRU PERIOD.

.MHX...NONE.

RSB/GGW

NCZ044-079-080-090>094-202100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1054 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COAST.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING HAIL 3/4 INCH OR GREATER.

RESIDENTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY TODAY. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDBIA FOR ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

RSB