Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
217 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2001

CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS FA ATTM...WITH MSAS SHOWING BEST
INSTABLITY AXIS OVER CENTRAL VA. FNTL BOUNDARY NOW LYING FROM
MASON-DIXON LINE INTO CENTRAL IND.

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS THROUGH THE FRIDAY. TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...THEN A
S/W TROF NOW OVER W TN...WHERE ACTIVITY IS WILL SHIFT ENE AND MOVE
THROUGH SE WV INTO NRN VA OVERNIGHT. ATTM...LEANING TOWARD HIGH CHC
TO LIKELY POPS EARLY EVENING EAST...THEN LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN SE
WV...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FFG INDICATES 1 TO 1.3 IN AN HOUR TO
CAUSE FLOODING IN SE WV. CRW ALREADY WITH FFA OUT...BUT SINCE AREAL
EXTENT OF HEAVY RAIN IS IN QUESTION...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL OCCUR...THINK FFA IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

THU...5H HEIGHTS FALL SOME...AS A SERIES OF S/WS MV FM UPPER MS VLY
TO MID ATC. REMNANTS OF ALLISON REMAIN OVER E TX. AT THE SFC...FNT
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF FA AT 18Z...THEN AVN PUSHES IT SOUTH OF CWA BY
00Z...WHILE ETA HOLDS IT NORTH. WILL COMPROMISE ON THIS MOVEMENT.
BEST UVM...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LIES SOUTH THU AFTN...AND WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS HERE...BUT WILL KEEP IT 50 POPS AT BEST.

THU NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL FINALLY CONTINUE SOUTH AND WILL
NOT HAVE ANY CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

FRI...AVN/ETA SHOWING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS...INTO
SRN VA. WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE AND PRETTY TIGHT
THETA-E...WILL KEEP CHANCE IN.

FINALLY LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER S/W BRINGS
A CHANCE ON MONDAY. DRY FOR TUE-WED.

FCSTID = 5
ROA   66  80  61  79 /  50  30  10  30
LYH   65  80  60  77 /  50  30  10  30
DAN   69  84  64  80 /  40  50  20  30
BLF   61  73  58  73 /  70  30  10  20
LWB   59  74  54  74 /  70  20  10  20
BCB   64  78  57  76 /  50  30  10  30
TNB   63  7A4  59  74 /  50  40  20  40

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

WHP

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-061800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1204 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2001

THERE IS NO LONGER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST INFORMATION INDICATES THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

JDS