Hail in North Carolina, June 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
210 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2001

PROBLEM OF THE DAY...POPS THROUGH THURSDAY.

H5 VORT OVER E NC NOW SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 00Z. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE POPPED UP ON OUR RADAR IN THE PAST HOUR. ETA AND AVN SHOW
ANOTHER VORT MOVING ACROSS NC BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT. SO AFTER
THESE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE THE FRONT AS WELL
AS GOOD H85 THETA-E OVER US LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER DELMARVA PENINSULA AT MIDDAY WILL GRADUALLY WORK
BACK S TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY SHOULD BE S OF OUR CWA BY LATE THU NIGHT.

PRESENTLY THE ETA OMEGA FIELD IS DOING THE BEST OF THE AVN/ETA/NGM.
MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NGM SHOWING A 1009 MB LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE NC/SC BORDER AT 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

NC OFFICES USE OAJ OBSERVATION CAUTIOUSLY AS THE TEMP APPEARS TOO
HIGH AND DEW POINT APPEARS TOO LOW.

EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES FRI NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN A BIT OF TROUGHINESS LATE MONDAY WHICH
MOVES OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. SO BEST CHANCE OF ANY PCPN
ACROSS OUR CWA LOOKS TO BE MONDAY. ON THE SFC WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF OUR REGION FRI NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

CWF:
SFC FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY S ACROSS THE CSTL WATERS THU. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TNT WILL REMAIN SW AT 15 TO 20 KT OFFSHORE. THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BY THU EVENING TH
FRONT WILL BE NEAR A HATTERAS TO NEW BERN LINE. IT WILL SAG SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT BY FRI AM. NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSTMS SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECMG SVR CAN BE EXPECTED THU AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. NELY WINDS
ON FRI WILL BE BTWN 10 TO 15 KT AND BECMG SE BY LATE IN THE DAY.

.MHX...NONE

PUBLIC/FIRE...SHAFFER
MARINE/AVIATION...ORROCK