Damaging Wind in New York, July 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

SCT CONVECTION FIRING ACRS THE SERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ATTM CLSR TO THE
LL THETA-E RDG. CONCUR WITH SPC ON SVR WATCH FOR CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS AND POINTS E AS PER PREV FCST DSCN. WILL HV SHRA/TSRA LIKELY
INTO ERLY EVE IN THE WATCH AREA AND SCT SHRA/TSRA FOR ADJACENT ZONES
TO THE W TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR ACVTY. THIS ACVTY SHUD DROP S
AND E OF REGION LATER IN THE EVENING.

ANTHR MORE VIGOROUS SHRT WAVE WAS DROPPING SE IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ATTM. THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL SPARK OFF A NOCTURNAL ROUND OF
CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY IN A LINE WITH STRG WINDS/BOW ECHOES ETC.
THIS UPR LVL FEATURE EVENTUALLY WILL ESTABLISH THE COOLER AIR INTO
THE REGION ON FAIRLY STRG LL WINDS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR N WILL
THE SIGNFCT CONVECTION OCCUR. BEST INSTABILITY AS PER LOW-LVL
MOISTURE IS S OF CWA BUT BEST COOLING ALOFT AND UPR LVL SUPPORT IS
FARTHER N OVER BGM CWA. NEXTSHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT TO THE N
AND W TO SEE HOW FAR N THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACVTY OCCURS TO
DETERMINE IF WE SEE A RARE NOCTURAL ROUND OF SVR STORMS. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP POPS IN ZONES FOR LATER TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHC OF
MORE CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...NY/PA IS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WRAP
ARND MOISTURE AS AN UPR LVL LO SLOLY TRACKS ACRS SERN CANADA TO THE
MARITIMES. SEE SCT AFTRN IN-STABILITY SHRA BOTH WED AND THU IN THIS
PATTERN FOR CNTRL NY AND THE NRN TIER OF PA.

WORKZONES OUT BY 3 PM...ZONES/RDF B4 330 PM.

.BGM...SVR TSTM WATCH DELAWARE...SULLIVAN...PIKE AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
NICOSIA

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-102300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THEY TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO THESE AREAS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE POCONOS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN THE CATSKILLS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN THE CATSKILLS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER
UPDATES.  IF THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...
WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED.

INFORMATION CAN ALSYO BE OBTAINED FROM THE BINGHAMTON NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BGM.

NICOSIA

NYZ057-PAZ040-NYZ062-PAZ048-100000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

DELAWARE NY...
WAYNE PA...
SULLIVAN NY...
PIKE PA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL 3/4 OF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER OR LARGER...DAMAGING  THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH  MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS  SHOULD WATCH FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TUNE  TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS
OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NAT,IONAL WEATHER SERVICE  IN
BINGHAMTON.

ONCE AGAIN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT.