Hail in New Mexico, May 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
945 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2001

WITH SHORTWAVE ADVANCING EWD FROM NV AND UPSLOPE IN PLACE OVER NERN
CRNR NM...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE SVR TO NERN ZNS
THIS AFTN/EVNG. OTHERWISE...CHANGES TO MORNING ZONE PACKAGE
COSMETIC. MODELS WANT TO STALL FRONT OVER EASTCENTRAL ZONES TNGT
WITH VORT MAX CROSSING SEWD OVER CNTRL NM LATE TNGT. THUS EAST WINDS
INTO CNTRL NM TNGT(:AND SUBSEQUENT POPS TNGT/FRI) CONTINGENT ON
CONVECTION NE/ECNTRL THIS AFTN AND EVENING. CURRENT FCST INDICATING
CHANCE RATHER THAN LIKELIHOOD OF THAT STRIKES RIGHT TONE. MJF

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-172030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1000 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2001

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE EASTCENTRAL PLAINS.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS...THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, COUPLED WITH A LOW
LEVEL EAST TO WEST UPSLOPE FLOW, WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE EASTCENTRAL PLAINS.

COUNTIES IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUIRED...
UNION...HARDING...QUAY...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...COLFAX...MORA...SAN
MIGUEL AND GUADALUPE.

COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUIRED...
NONE.

COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS
MAY BE REQUIRED...
NONE.

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS OR LIFE THREATENING WEATHER. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE
SPECIFIC STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KEPZ.