Hail in New Jersey, May 29, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2001

UPDATED THE FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR AND SAT
IMAGERY TRENDS.  BOOSTED POPS IN CENTRAL DELMARVA ZONES TO REFLECT
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA.  ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN JUST A
BIT TO REFLECT EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY.  ALSO
EXPANDED CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH IN NJ AND SE PA.

LEFT REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALONE AS CURRENT TRENDS TO OUR
WEST SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST.  EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

NO SIG CHANGES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST.

.PHI...NONE.

SZATKOWSKI

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW------------------------------

DISC: NOT TOO MANY CHGS FROM PREV MDL RUNS. PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW LIFTING NEWD INTO CAN TDY...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER CLSD LOW THAT IS DIVING SWD FROM HUDSON BAY. WE WILL CONT
PCPN CHCS FOR TAFTN AND EVE AND KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST DRY.
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR ON WED THRU THU MRNG...MIGHT EVEN BE SOME
FROST ACRS NRN ZONES IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY ENOUGH WED NGT.

ALL THE MDLS ARE HNDLG THE OH SHRT WV QUITE WELL. UNFORTUATELY ITS
FCSTD TO MOVE THRU OUR CWA A BIT SLOR THAN YDA AND SHLD PERMIT TEMPS
TO REACH CONVECTIVE LVLS (60-70) B4 ITS DEPARTURE. FTHR TO THE NW A
CDFNT OVR THE ST LAWR VLY IS FCSTD TO MOVE THRU OUR CWA ON THE HEELS
OF THIS DEPARTING SHRT WV ARND SUNSET. BOTH FEATS WILL SUPPLY
ENUF LIFT FOR CLDS AND PCPN TO FORM. UNLIKE THIS WEEKEND...AIR MASS
IS NOT AS MOIST...ONLY A WK THETA E RDG IS FCSTD...CWA IS ON WRONG
SIDE OF ENTR RGN OF H2.5 JET AND EXPECTED WRLY SFC FLOW PRECEDING
THESE FEATS SHLD KEEP AREAL CVRG IN THE CHC CAT.

52TT AND LI OF ABT -4 WERE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER ACRS THE
NRN SEC OF THIS VORT MAX ERLR THIS EVE. FCSTD STAB ACRS OUR CWA IS
SLGTLY MORE STABLE WITH TTS OF ABT 50 AND SB CAPES OF ABT 500J.
GIVEN -20C COLD POOL AT H5 THERE MIGHT BE ENUF COLD AIR AT ECHO TOP
LVLS TO PRODUCE THUNDER...SO WE/LL ADD THE CHC ALL ZONES FOR TAFTN.
UPDRAFT STRENGTH LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...LACK OF SGFCNT SHEAR AND SHARP
THETA E DROP OFF AT MID LVLS SHLD KEEP THESE IN THE ORDINARY RNG.

GUID MAX TEMPS HAVE COALESCED AND ARE CONSIST WITH THE FULL SUN
MACROS IN THE 70S. 1000-850 THICK ARE FCSTD TO BE IN LINE TO YDA/S
LVLS AND WILL USE YDA/S MAX TEMPS TO TWEAK TDY/S A DEG OR TWO ARND
GUID LVLS.

WE/LL KEEP A CHC OF EVE SHRA ACRS OUR NRN ZNS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
APCHG STG SHRT WV FROM HDS BAY IN ADTN TO THE DEEPER FCSTD MSTR AND
PSBL OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTIONS. FTHR DOWNSTREAM...WITH EXITING SHRT
WV TAFTN AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SHRT WV AFT THE DEEP MSTR IS
GONE WE/LL REMOVE MNTN OF PCPN. AVN CONTS TO BACK OFF ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE WAVE CUR DVLPG OVR AL AND SHLD NOT HAVE AN
EFFECT ON OUR WX. OVERALL WE LIKE THE COOLER GUID MINS (NGM/FAN) FOR
TNGT GIVEN FCSTD PLUNGE IN LO LVL THICK BY WED MRNG.

WE/LL KEEP WED DRY. COLD POOL ALF SHLD HELP US REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS RATHER EASILY. BUT WRAPARND MSTR FCSTD BY BOTH THE AVN AND NGM
LOOK OVRDONE GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THIS CLSD LOW IS FCSTD TO MOVE EWD
AND LOCN OF SFC REFLECTION. OTRWISE IT SHLDN/T FEEL LIKE A LATE MAY
DAY GIVEN STIFF NW WINDS. AVN CONTS TO BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN
EITHER THE NGM OR ETA AT LO LVLS. ITS COLD POOL ACTUALLY INTENSIFIES
WITH TIME. FOR NOW WE/LL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE ON THIS DVLPMNT GIVEN
THE OTHER MDLS DON/T HAVE IT AND CUR UPSTREAM H8 TEMPS. NONETHELESS
ETA/S FULL SUN MACROS SUG TAKING A BIT OFF OF THE WRMR NGM MAX TEMPS
ANYWAY. BUT WE/LL BE CLSR TO THE NGM THAN THE AVN MOS OVERALL.

IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY GIVEN FCSTD LO 30S DEWPTS...THERE
MIGHT BE SOME FROST PBLMS IN FAR NRN ZONES AND SUBFREEZING TEMPS IN
THE PINELAND BOGS WED NGT. WE/LL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITU. RECORD
MINS FOR THE 31ST ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND MIGHT NOT BE REACHED EVEN
WITH THIS CHILLY AIR MASS.

AVN REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN
ITS AND THE MRF/S BETTER HNDLG OF OUR RECENT PAT...WE/LL CONT THE
MORE PROG PAT AND LEAVE THE EXTDD PRETTY MUCH INTACT. IF ANYONE WAS
MISSING THOSE ABT 90 HI TEMPS OF ERLR THIS MONTH...THEY MIGHT BE
BACK DURG THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JUNE.

MARINE: WE/LL HEADLINE THE SCA PSBLTY FOR THE OCEAN AND LWR DE BAY
FOR WED.

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