Hail in New Jersey, June 21, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2001

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP AFTERNOON WORDING AND BUMP UP TEMPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. RK

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WELCOME TO SUMMER AND IT WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH THE PTNL FOR SOME MORE HVY DOWNPOURS UNFORTUNATELY.

NGM WAS CORRECT LAST NGT IN FCSTG THE FTHR S MOVEMENT OF THE FNTL
BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOW FCSTD TO LINGER ACRS OUR CWA B4 LIFTING NWD
FRI AFTN AND NGT. OTRWISE THE MDLS ARE MUCH SLOR AND FTHR W WITH THE
2ND CDFNT THAN THEY WERE WITH LAST NGT/S RUN. ONE FEAT THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH DVLPG A LLJ ACRS OUR NERN ZNS LT TAFTN. THIS COULD
BE THE FIRST SHOT OF HVY RAIN. THE 2ND SHOT AT HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
COME WITH THE SLOWLY MOVG CDFNT ITSELF LT FRI INTO SAT MRNG.
SUBJECT TO CHG...BUT THIS FAR OUT IT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE STG
TROF FCSTD FOR LATE JUN AND CWA IN ENTRANCE RGN OF H2.5 JET ALF.

FOR TDY...UPSTREAM SOUNDGS ARE PRETTY MOIST AND FCSTD PWATS OF ARND
1.75 DO NOT LOOK OUTRAGEOUS. FCSTD WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...BUT
WILL SHOW FRBL VEERING FOR TSRA WITH HVY RAIN. ETA IS OVERDOING LLVL
MSTR AGAIN WITH FCSTD TD/S IN THE LO-MID 70S. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL
TAKE LESS ENERGY TDY TO REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND SHRA/TSRA
SHLD REDEVELOP TAFTN IN WRM SECTOR S OF THE BNDRY AND MOVE NWD. IF
THE ETA IS RIGHT...SOME DYNAMIC HELP WILL COME ACRS OUR NWRN ZNS AS
LLJ INTENSIFIES LTR TDY. WE WILL CONT LIKELY WORDG ACRS THE NRN
2/3RDS OF OUR CWA AND LEAVE CHC POPS FTHR TO THE S. WE WILL ISSUE AN
ESF ABT THE PTNL FOR HVY RAIN WITH THE TSRA/S LT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED
AMTS OF 2-3 NOT ABSURD GIVEN JUICY AIR MASS. HOPEFULLY NOT OVER THE
SAME LOCNS THAT WERE HAMMERED THIS WEEKEND. DAYSHIFT CAN REACCESS
THE SITU AND ISSUE A FFA IF NEEDED WELL B4 THE THREAT OF HVY PCPN.
GIVEN FCST OF LLJ WOULD THINK GREATEST THREAT FOR HVY RAIN WOULD BE
TWD THE POCONOS.

HOPE DECAYING CONVECTION WILL FINALLY DISPT ERLY THIS MRNG TO MAKE
THE WORDING CLEANER. AS FAR AS SEVERE PTNL IS CONCERNED...FCSTD WIND
FIELDS APR TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SVR WX. CWA FAR REMOVED FROM STGR
WINDS ALF AND HIEST CAPES (S) ARE REMOVED FROM STGST HEL (NE). COULD
THERE BE ONE OR TWO SVR PULSERS LIKE YDA...PSBLY IN THE
DELMARVA...BUT AGREE WITH SPC/S ACCESSMENT OF REMOVING US FROM SLGT
RISK ATTM. WILL BE GOING WITH GUID TEMPS TDY AS CLDS SHLD KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...ESP IN NRN HALF OF OUR CWA.

AS LLJ LIFTS INTO NY STA THIS EVE...THREAT OF ORGANIZED HVY PCPN
SHLD DIMINISH AND WE/LL EMPHASIZE ERLY PART OF NGT FOR GREATEST
THREAT. PRFR SLGTLY WETTER AVN MAV POPS OVR THE NESTED. GUID MINS
REASONABLE.

SECOND AND PBLY GREATER SHOT AT HVY RAIN WILL THEN COME LTR FRIDAY
INTO SAT MRNG AS CDFNT APCHS CWA. STAB INDICES SUGG WE MIGHT STAY
BLO SVR THRESHOLD ON FRI AS LAPSE RATES RMN WK AND TTS IN THE MID
40S. MIGHT HAVE TO HAVE A CLSR LOOK AT THIS TMRW AS CWA MIGHT HAVE A
CHC TO BREAK OUT INTO THE WRM SECTOR AND THE STGR WIND FIELD WILL BE
APCHG THE RGN. ATTM WE/LL CONT LIKELY POPS NWRN ZNS/CHC POPS SERN
ZNS...EMPHASIZING THE AFTN HRS. PRFR WARMER AVN MOS TEMPS GIVEN WE
SHLD GET INTO THE WRM SECTOR. THREAT FOR HVYR PCPN SHOULD PEAK FRI
NGT AS CDFNT APCHS AND WK WV DVLPS ON THE FNT. WILL CONT LIKELY
POPS.

GOING TO LEAVE THE EXTDD PRETTY MUCH AS IS AS THERE HAS BEEN MUCH
MDL FLIP-FLOPPING ABT WHETHER THE TROF WILL CLOSE OFF W OF THE CWA
SUN/MON.

MARINE: VERY QUIET.

TU FOR COORD BGM/CTP/HPC/SPC HAVE A GOOD NIGHT

.PHI...NONE.

TFG