Lightning Strike in New Hampshire, June 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2001

THE BIG FCST QUESTION IS THE EXTENT OF +RA WITH THE SLUG OF MOIST
ACRS SRN NEW ENGLAND.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FNT SPLITTING THE FA IN HALF.  W OF
THE FNT...MUCH OF THE PCPN HAS TAPERED OFF...THO THE AMS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH.  E OF THE FNT...THE AMS IS STILL TROPICAL...AND THE
FEED FROM SRN NEW ENG IS STILL IN PLACE.

MODELS IN A LTL BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LO THAT ONCE WAS
ALLISON.  BASED ON THE EXPECTED MVMT...WUD EXPECT THAT THE BEST
INFLO AND INSTAB WL EXIT THE FA DURG THE EVENING HRS...ESP E OF
PWM.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATIFORM -RA WL ACCOMPANY
THE SFC LO...BUT BASED ON THE PASSAGE WUD EXPECT LTL OTHER THAN THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION NOW.

WITH THIS IN MIND...WL TRY TO KEEP MUCH OF NH DRY WITH THE NEW
PACKAGE.  MAY HAVE TO SPLIT OF SERN NH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOSE
PASSAGE OF THE MOIST...BUT NRN NH MAY BE SEEING THE LAST OF THE
ACTIVITY NOW.

FURTHER E...WL CONT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  ALL
MODELS SHOWS THE BEST INSTAB E OF THE PEN BAY BY 06Z...AND WL USE
THIS AS A GUIDE FOR ENDING THE PCPN.  FOR ERN ZNS...WL CONT THE
MENTION OF +RA...SINCE KOKX RADAR INDICATES AS MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES/HR
STILL HAS TO PASS THRU AT LEAST THE ERN ZNS.  THIS IS WELL BLO FFG
NUMBERS.  MAY MENTION SUM STREET FLOODING...BUT THIS SHUD BE ABT
IT.  COORD WITH CAR ON THIS.

WL END THE PCPN IN ALL AREAS AFT MIDN.  IR LOOP SHOWS FAIRLY STG
CLEARING.  NOT SURE WE WL BE ABLE TO DO THIS...BUT WL MENTION
CLEARING IN NH AND PTNS OF ME.  WL BE LESS SPECIFIC ABT ANY CLEARING
E.

LUKS AS THO THERE WL BE ENUF OF A LULL IN THE GRAD TO ALLOW FG TO
FORM...ESP OF NH...AND WL ADD THIS TO THE FCST.  THE AMS CHG IS
GRADUAL...SO WL USE MOS NUMBERS FOR MINS.

FOR MON...THE AMS IS FAIRLY CLEAN BHND THE SYS.  LAPSE RATES DO NOT
APPEAR TO FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT...EVEN IN THE
MTNS.  WL GO WITH M/SUNNY ALL ZNS.  LUKS TO BE ENUF OF A GRAD TO
THWART THE SEA BREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND IT SHUDN'T IMPACT
TEMPS.  80A TEMPS SUPPORT MOS NUMBERS...AND WL USE THEM.

NEXT WAA BATCH AHEAD OF THE S/W SPINNING UP A LO IN QUEBEC WL CROSS
THE FA.  LUKS AS THO THE BEST MOIST STAYS N...BUT CUD BE ENUF HI AND
MID LEVEL CLDS FOR P/CLDY.  WHATEVER GRAD EXISTING IN THE EVENING WL
BE GONE.  NOT A GRAD RAD COOLING NGT...BUT SHUD BE ABLE TO GET TO
MOS NUMBERS.

ON TUE...THE SFC FNT DROPS CLOSE TO THE FA. INSTAB IS NOT
GREAT...AND MOIST FLUX IS JUST INCRG...BUT WL GO WITH A MIN POP LATE
FOR THE NRN ZNS.  ELSEWHERE...SHUD BE DRY ENUF TO P/SUNNY.  80A
TEMPS SUGGEST THAT THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS WL BE CLOSER TO THE
TRUTH...AND WL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION.

THE FNT DROPS TO THE CST TUE NGT...SO WL MENTION A POP HERE.  WED IS
THE QUESTION DAY OF THE EXTENDED...SINCE THE ULTIMATE DISPOSITION OF
THE FNT WL DETERMINE HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR.  LUKS LIKE ALL
MODEL AGREE ON MORE PCPN THU.

ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO SCA AS THE FNT
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHUD BE TEMPORARY.  SINCE IT APPEARS AS THO THE
LO WL PASS CLOSE TO THE_ BENCHMARK...WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA FOR
AWHILE LT TNGT AND EARLY MON...THEN DROP OFF.

PRELIM WRKZFP/WRKCWF AVBL SOON.  AS ALWAYS...COMMENTS/OPINIONS
WELCOME.

.GYX...NONE.

HAYES