Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 4, 2001

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT WED JUL 4 2001

CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE SLOWER ACROSS SRN NV. STORMS ARE
DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
WAVE MOVING INTO SRN ZONES HELPING TO FIRE CONVECTION...WITH SRN NV
IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
PERHAPS BEYOND. AVN/ETA SIMILAR IN SHORT TERM...AND BOTH SHOW
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WITH PWS NEAR ONE INCH. BOTH ALSO
HINT AT WEAK WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT H5 JETS WITH
FIRST ONE TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE WILL NOT GO WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION SINCE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS BOTH NIGHTS TO KEEP AT
LEAST A MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL...STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR
50 AND PERHAPS HIGHER BY FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT...WITH STILL SOMEWHAT
DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT DECENT MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO. FOR NOW...FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOOKS
MINIMAL SINCE STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG.

EXTENDED...AVN/MRF/EURO TAKE H5 HIGH TO WRN OK BY SUN...THEN SLOWLY
STARTS TO MIGRATE BACK TO FOUR CORNERS. SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS CWA...BUT H7 FLOW REMAINS WEAK SO DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH
DRYING. DRYING TREND TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY MONDAY LOOKS OK...BUT WILL
KEEP CHANCE GOING EAST CENTRAL. NOGAPS/UK WHICH WERE MORE GUNG HO
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...NOW GO TO KEEPING SLY FLOW THROUGH EXTENDED.
COMPROMISE LOOKS BEST...AND THIS IS THE MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT IT
ALSO SHOWS RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BEST GUESS WILL BE A QUIETER TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN TOWARD THE END AS ENSEMBLE SHOWS. WALLMANN

.EKO...NONE.