Flooding in Nebraska, March 15 to 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
300 AM CST THU MAR 15 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHAT TO DO WITH GOING HEADLINES.

06Z SFC ANLYS INDICATED 998MB SFC LOW OVER SE KS.  STLT INDICATED
STG SHRTWV MOVG THRU THE OK PANHDL.  THE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
MOVG THIS SHRTWV E ACROSS OK AND INTO NRN AR/SRN MO BY EARLY EVE.
AS THIS SHRTWV APPROACHES...THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THRU THE DAY AND INTO TNGT.  SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
PCPN FIELD AS COMPARED TO 12Z MDL RUNS IN THAT IT IS SHIFTED FURTHER
SE.  ALSO THE COLDER AIR IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER FILTERING INTO THE
CWA...SPCLY THE SE AREAS.  CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE
EARLIEST THAT THE FAR SE WOULD BE THREATENED WITH SNOW WOULD BE
EARLY AFTN.  CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE GROWING/EXPANDING AREA OF
-SN OVER WRN/CNTRL NE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH
AND THE BULK OF THIS SHD STAY W OF THE CWA.  WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
CHC POPS MOST AREAS...RANGING UPWARD TO LIKELY CLOSER TO THE SE
CORNER.  THE MDLS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE PCPN
SHIELD FROM ERN KS INTO NRN MO DURG THE DAY AS SHRTWV APPROACHES AND
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS.  ALTHOUGH BEST THREAT WILL BE FURTHER S AND
SE...EXTREME SE NEB AND SW IA STILL APPEAR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE PCPN
SHIELD TO BE THREATENED WITH SOME SNOW...MAINLY FROM THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING HRS.  COORD WITH GID...TOP...AND MCI AND WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SE NEB AND SW IA COUNTIES FOR
THIS AFTN-EVE WITH 2-4 INCHES PSBL.

FURTHER N...WILL DROP GOING WINTER WEATHER ADV AS SNOWFALL TO BE
NEGLIGIBLE.  CONSIDERED THREAT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS LATER
TDY INTO EARLY TNGT.  ALTHOUGH 85H WNDS INCREASE TO 65KTS DURG THE
AFTN OVER THE E CNTRL AND SE...FEEL MOST OF THIS WILL NOT BE
TRANSLATED TO SFC AND SO FEEL WND ADV WILL NOT BE WARRANTED.  MOST
WNDS S/B IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.

TNGT...SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT INTO THE MID MS VLY
RGN....THUS THREAT OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TNGT OVER THE FAR SE AND
THUS WILL KEEP ADV GOING INTO THE EVE HRS.  FURTHER NW...ONLY A FEW
FLURRIES PSBL EARLY...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATER WITH SLOWLY DEC
WNDS.

FRI...LINGERING FLURRIES EXTREME SE...OTRW BECOMING PTLY SUNNY.

IN THE EXTENDED...GOING EXTENDED LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES.

.OMA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEZ091>093 AND IAZ080-090-091

SKERRITT