Damaging Wind in Nebraska, April 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
315 PM CDT MON APR 9 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES IN LATER PERIODS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...OUR AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS ONE CIRCULATION
MOVES OUT TO OUR NORTH THRU DKTS AND A FRONT IS NEARLY STALLED FROM
SE KS INTO SE IA WITH UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH.  WEAK SFC RIDGE
OVER NEB WILL TEND TO LIFT INTO THE DKTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT
RADIATION CONDS OVERNIGHT.  THE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK SPEED MAX
APPARENTLY EMERGING FROM THE SW U.S. TROUGH THAT WILL DROP PRESSURES
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND BEGIN MOVING THE FRONT NORTH LATER
TONIGHT.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF ELEVATED TSTMS IN THE SOUTH
BY MORNING.

BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TUE. INTO WED. NIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES AS A CLOSED LOW.
THE ETA AND AVN ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THEIR HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SLOWING TENDENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FINAL PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC...MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAVE A
COMPLETE GRASP ON THE SITUATION YET.  MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
BETWEEN THE ETA AND AVN ARE LIKELY TO GO THROUGH A FEW CHANGES
BEFORE THE ACTUAL ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL BE
CONSEQUENTIAL FOR OUR WEATHER DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW NEAR
OUR WEST COUNTIES.  WILL GO WITH A ETA/AVN COMPROMISE FOR NOW.
EXPECT SYSTEM TO BE NEAR OCCLUSION AS IT TRACKS OVER...WITH SFC LOW
POSITION SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
AVN.

EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE FAR SE ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A
GOOD CHC OF CONVECTION DECREASING TOWARD THE NW.  UPPED MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN SE WHILE THE NW REMAINS COOL WITH INCREASING CLDS.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS MAIN SFC
AND UPPER LOWS KICK OUT ACROSS THE AREA.  SE COULD WARM UP FOR A
WHILE IN A DRY SLOT ON WED...WHILE THE FAR NW ZONES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN COOL AND WET.  TEMPS UNCERTAIN DUE TO DRY SLOT...BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE INCREASING DURING WED.  RAISED POPS A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LEFT HIGH WED POPS IN PLACE.

AS LOW EJECTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE
STRONG.  HOPEFULLY THEY WILL FALL SHORT OF SIMILAR SITUATION LAST
SAT...BUT SO FAR PROGS ARE NOT AS INTENSE WITH SFC LOW.  BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE WRAPAROUND REGION WILL COME TO THE NW ZONES.  GOOD
MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP DESPITE COOL ADVECTION.

EXTENDED LOOKS DRIER AS MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN U.S. KEEPS
MOISTURE LOWER...%AND NEXT SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
SEEMS LIKELY TO GO SOUTH OF US.  THIS ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE LAST MAJOR
SYSTEM FOR A WHILE AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

.OMA...NONE

POLLACK