Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, April 10, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
421 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW
SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. LEADING
EDGE OF 110 KNOT 300 MB JET NOSING INTO NM AND CO. IN AN OTHERWISE
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WERE OBSERVED IN MN AND OK.

LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST CO. EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW...A
WARM FRONT WAS POSITIONED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF KS...AND INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL. RICH 60+ DEWPOINT AIR WAS IN PLACE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DRYLINE WAS NOTED TO BE MIXING BACK WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES.
OTHERWISE...SOME AC CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE AND
NORTHERN KS.

MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE TSRA CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING POSSIBILITIES FOR SEVERE WX.

AS EVENING SHIFT MENTIONED IN UPDATE...CONVECTION AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS UPPER JET CORE APPROACHES...AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN KS. WILL MONITOR LATEST PROFILER AND CLOUD/RADAR
TRENDS FOR ANY HINTS OF DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MORNING ZONE ISSUANCE. 00Z
KAIN-FRITSCH ETA...AS WELL AS 06Z ETA...POINTING TO SOME RA
DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 12Z.

SFC WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS KS TODAY...WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO
THE NORTH...SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MIXING
NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.

MODE OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION WOULD INITIALLY BE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN PER FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EVENT WOULD THEN TRANSITION
SOMEWHAT TO BOTH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AND AS BEST JET
DYNAMICS NEARS THE CWA...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CERTAINLY NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WHILE SEVERE WX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...
I-80 AND SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN AREAS
OF FOCUS.

RA/TSRA CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED AND RACES THROUGH NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SEVERE
WX COULD STILL BE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN VICINITY
OF COMMAHEAD AND NOSE OF DRY PUNCH. TIMING AND EXTENT OF DRY SLOT A
WILD CARD IN SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...SO KEEP WEDNESDAY POPS RATHER
MINIMAL IN THOSE AREAS. WILL HIT WIND WORDING RATHER HARD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC DOWNWARD MOTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW TO EFFECTIVELY MIX DOWN A STRONG 50-60
KNOT 850 MB JET. CERTAINLY STANDS TO REASON THAT SOME SORT OF WIND
ADVISORY/WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED.

NO CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AT THIS TIME.

WILL ISSUE MORNING SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK/SPS BY 6 AM.
f
THANKS FOR COORDINATION TOP.

.GID...NONE.

GUYER

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-102000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
553 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALL WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LIKE LAST FRIDAYS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
OF THESE POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

AS THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY...THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION WOULD BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. BY THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUCH
THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AT SOME POINT TODAY...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
AS WELL AS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD EVEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
WEATHER *SITUATION CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

GUYER