Hail in Missouri, June 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
210 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2001

STNRY FNT ABT A HALF OF STATE FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED
LAST NIGHT.  CONVECT HAS WEAKENED...AND HAS ALMOST EXITED CWA.
DOUBT WE'LL SEE ANYMORE CONVECT TONIGHT...AS NO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT
ATTM.  THIS SCENARIO IS A FAR CRY FRM LAST NITES SHORT RANGE MODEL
PRED.

WITH NO CONVECT DEBRIS ARND TO PUT A DAMPER OF TEMPS...UPR 80S DONT
LK OUT OF LINE FOR MAXES.  FEEL FWC 90+ VALUES A LTL HIGH GIVEN
EVAPOTRAN EFFECT AND SHALLOW LO LVL MOIST. SHORT TERM MODELS DONT
APPEAR TO HV VRY GOOD HNDL ON CONVECT EVOLUTION.  STNRY BNDRY THAT
BISECT MO ATTM...PROGGD TO LIFT NWD DURING DAY.  LEFT OVR OUTFLOW
BNDRYS FRM TONIGHTS CONVET NOT APPARENT IN CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS...BUT
WL PBLY HV IMPACT ON CONVECT DEVELOPMENT TDA. WEAK SHRTWV PROGGD TO
TRAVERSE SRN EXTENT OF WESTERLIES DURING DAY.  THIS CULD BE ENUF
TO FIRE CONVECT ALNG RETREATING BNDRY DURING AFTN. THINK MOST OF
THE ACTION ACRS CWA WL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS NOSE OF LLJ
DIRECTED INTO IA/NE DURING OVERNIGHT HRS.  AXIS OF LLJ SHIFTS SLGTLY
SWD DURING THE NIGHT...SO CANNOT DISCOUNT CONVECT BLDG SWD INTO NRN
ZONES BY SR MONDAY.

FCST LESS CONFUSING ON MONDAY...AS CAP STRENGTH INCRS OVR FA.  NOT
SURE HOW MUCH EFFECT EVAPOTRAN WL HAVE ON TEMPS...BUT WL CTN WITH
PRVS FCST MAXES NR 90.  FCST GET CONFUSING AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AVN DRIVES CONVECT INTO NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT...WHILE ETAX AND CANADIAN
MODELS KEEP ACTION NORTH.  THIS TREND CTNS THRU MOST OF EXTENDED...
WITH AVN WETTER AND COOLER THAN REST OF MED RNG MODELS. PRVS SHIFT
HAS ALRDY ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD...AND HATE TO FLIP FLOP.  HOPEFULLY
WL GET TO PEAK AT LASTEST MRF BEFORE ZONES ISSUED.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SF

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2001

FORECAST: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM SAINT JOSEPH TO BOONVILLE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
FRONT.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...DEPLETED SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. WHEREAS...
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THE REST OF MISSOURI MAINTAINED A SHALLOW
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WILL
HELP INTENSIFY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS
STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE LARGE HAIL ALSO
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO IOWA.

OUTLOOK: THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS WARM AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGIN
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...INCREASING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REST
OF MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

SF