Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 1, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT FRI JUNE 1 2001

MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT TONIGHT.

CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WE WARMED RAPIDLY INTO THE 70S FROM EARLY MORNING TEMPS NEAR 50.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF DES MOINES TO GOODLAND KANSAS. DEWPOINT
TEMPS ARE INCREASING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT 60+ DEWPOINTS REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST. LATEST LAPS DATA
SHOWS LIS BELOW ZERO WEST OF AN OSAGE BEACH TO SPRINGFIELD
LINE...WITH CAPES FROM 100 TO 600 J/KG. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE TOO IMPRESSIVE BY THE TIME THE STORMS GET HERE (AFTER
03Z) AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG VORT MAX APPROACHING THE
AREA CONTINUE TO FAVOR LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT. 100 KT JET
ACCOMPANYING STORMS WILL ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE BEST DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOCATED.

LATEST RUC80 HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MESOETA NOT PICKING UP ON PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WELL. REST OF THE
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FRONT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN A RATHER NARROW BAND AS FRONT
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER
QUICK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...DRYING US OUT TEMPORARILY.

LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG 850 THETA E ADVECTION SETTING UP OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AFTER 06Z. THEREFORE WILL ADD POPS FOR LATE
SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS INCREASINGLY WET...AS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY. FRONT MAY THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
PROPAGATES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY
BRINGS FLOODING TO OUR AREA...AND FEAR THAT MODEL QPF MAY BE
UNDERDONE.

WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS...

PRELIMINARY FCST:
FCSTID = 17/TERRY
SGF   56  74  54  75 / 60  10  10  40
JLN   57  75  57  74 / 60  10  30  50
UNO   54  74  54  73 / 60  20  10  40
VIH   53  73  53  75 / 60  20  10  30

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088-089-020500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 352...IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...CEDAR...DADE...DALLAS...HICKORY...
JASPER...LACLEDE...MARIES...MILLER...MORGAN...POLK...PULASKI...ST.
CLAIR AND VERNON.

IN KANSAS:

BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE BOLIVAR...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...PITTSBURG AND STOCKTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.