Hail in Missouri, July 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2001

...HEAT...THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE...

SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDRIES IN THE AREA. ONE LIES NEAR HIGHWAY 36 AND HAS GENERATED
SOME WEAK SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THE OTHER BOUNDRY STRETCHES FROM NEAR
KVIH TO KCOU. PROFILERS SHOW WAA AT 700MB SO DIURNAL ACTIVITY COULD
STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE. STILL
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND EXTREME AMOUNTS OF CAPE SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS PRIMED FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER NERN KS AND
NWRN MO AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDRY IN NERN KS/SERN NEBR...LLJ FOCUS INTO THE AREA...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL INDICATE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS SUGGEST
FAVORABLE WAA ADVECTION FROM MID EVENING THRU EARLY MORNING SO A
WINDOW OF AT LEAST 6 HRS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES FROM THE METRO NORTH TO THE IOWA BORDER
THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING HEAT
CRITERIA FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY. KSTJ WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH HEAT INDEX OF 105 TODAY. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS TOMORROW MORNING
WILL BE TOUGH TO PROG...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE OVER NERN MO. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH SAME EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONFIGURATION AS
TODAY. HOT...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY SO WILL TACK ON AN ADDITIONAL DAY TO THE WARNING.

IN THE EXTENDED...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT PKG.  SHRTWVS CONTINUE
TO ROUND THE RIDGE...BUT HARD TO TIME/PLACE.  NEXT BEST CHC FOR PCPN
LOOKS TO BE WITH SFC FRNT MOVING DOWN FROM THE NRN PLAINS. H5 RIDGE
DOES FLATTEN SOMEWHAT SO DOES NOT LOOK OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN TUES-THURS WITH MINOR COOL DOWN TWDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.

.EAX...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MO...ZONES 001-002-011>013-020-021-028-029-037
KS...ZONES 025-102>105

EX-CESSIVE HEAT WARNING
MO...ZONES 020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054
KS...ALL ZONES

93/27

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2001

FORECAST: THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ATCHISON KANSAS TO KIRKSVILLE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THESE
STORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 105 DEGREES AGAIN SOUTH OF A TROY KANSAS TO
CARROLLTON TO FAYETTE LINE. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PUT A
BRIEF DAMPER ON THE WARMUP...HOWEVER AFTER THE STORMS PASS
CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME HOT AND MUGGY.

DISCUSSION:  A DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY CAUSED BY LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BELOW 100 DEGREES.  WITH THE VERY HIGH DEW
POINTS...THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY NEED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 90S FOR IT TO FEEL LIKE 110 DEGREES.

OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

LVQ