Damaging Winds in Missouri, December 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 PM CST WED DEC 5 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA NOW...AND THEN
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS PROGGING TEMPORARY CHANGE IN LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE
TROUGH SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN STATES. CURRENTLY SHORTWAVE
EJECTING ACROSS REGION PUSHING FRONT THROUGH CWA ATTM. FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EASTERN PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG ROUGHLY AN IRK
TO DMO LINE. OTHERWISE SKIES CLEARING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO CWA. WITH DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ACROSS CWA...ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

NEXT WAVE PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH CWA THURS...WITH STRONGER WAVE
FRI...AS EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS. EFFECT ON CWA
WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP EXPECTED TROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES
WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE RELATIVELY NON-EXISTENT.

IN THE EXTENDED...WENT PRIMARILY WITH THE MRF FOR THE SATURDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY RANGE. THE CANADIAN WAS FASTER AND THE EUROPEAN SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY.  BEFORE THEN A COUPLE OF
MINOR DRY FRONTS COME THROUGH.  MADE ON MINOR CHANGES...PRIMARILY
LOWERED TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MS/JJ

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CST WED DEC 5 2001

FORECAST: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI...WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY
ALONG THE I 35 CORRIDOR AROUND 2 PM...THEN NEAR A SEDALIA TO
KIRKSVILLE LINE BY 5 PM. AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END.

OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

SEAMAN