Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, June 8, 2001

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
220 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THROUGH PERIOD

.OVERVIEW...
UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS GETTING MORE INTENSE NEAR
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ATTM...WITH ANOTHER CELL IN NORTHWEST FA. ETA
MODEL DID THE BEST WITH MOISTURE...SO WILL UTILIZE.

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING ENTERING MN SHOULD SLOWLY DIE WITH DAY TIME
HEATING OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD PERSIST TO AROUND 04Z AFTER UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AREA. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS
EVENING...WITH LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE AND DECENT INSTABILITY. LATER
TONIGHT...850MB LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL SD...WITH
SHOWALTER/S APPROACHING -2C IN SOUTHEAST ND BY 12Z SAT. THIS COULD
BRING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHEAST ND LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
WITH GOOD MID LEVEL FLOW. SFC WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN NEAR
NORTHEAST SD...WITH FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER FA.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.20 INCHES
ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST FA. EVEN IN NORTHEAST....CAPES
APPROACH 1500 J/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEARING 1 INCH BY 00Z
SUNDAY. STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF ACROSS NORTHERN FA ON SATURDAY UNTIL
AFTERNOON...WITH THE REST OF AREA SEEING A CHANCE AT ANY TIME
SATURDAY. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND EXPECT AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND RIDE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.  TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...AND WITH
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALL DAY SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT
WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER MCS POSSIBLE AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 80 TO 85...WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 MAKING IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 AS WELL. FWC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
SITUATION...AND WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSELY.

STILL SOME TIMINING DIFFERENCES ON THE EXTEDNED MODELS IN WHEN THE
50H MOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN STATES NEXT WEEK. UNTIL
THE LOW EJECTS OUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON ANY GIVEN DAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONFIDENCE
BEGINS TO DIMINISH IN THE FORECAST RIGHT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED. THE ECMWF IS NOW THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
CANADIAN STILL THE SLOWEST. MRF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND IS
NOTORIOUSLY TO FAST IN THESE SITUATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
TRANSISTION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTEREN FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COULD SEE SEVERE TSRA AND HEAVY RAINS
THROUGH WEDENSDAY.
.FGF...NONE.

KELLENBENZ/BRAZZELL