Hail in Minnesota, August 18, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
200 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE EVENING SHOWERS...THEN TEMPS.
FOR SUNDAY...IT WILL BE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TEMPS. THEN MONDAY, THE
ISSUE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

SFC LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN IOWA. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
SPUTTERING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE BUT ARENT MAKING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT AS SEEN FROM 88D IMAGERY. THE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
IS LIKELY KEEPING THEM SUBDUED. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, A LITTLE
HEALTHIER LINE OF SHOWERS ORITENTED ENE-WSW IS DOING FINE, BUT THE
LACK OF LIGHTNING RETURN WOULD INDICATE THAT THOSE ARE ALSO WEAK.
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS TO ASSIST THEM WITH NVA
CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SO THEY SHOULD DIE
BEFORE SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT WELL HAVE WORDING FOR SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY SUNSET...
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS. THE WHOLE AREA IS UNDER AN 850 MB
COOL POOL. SO LOWS AROUND 50 SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...EXCEPT FOR SOME
45 TO 50 IN THE AREAS WHICH ARE COMPARATIVELY COOLER...LIKE NE MN
AND SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. CU RULE FIELDS FOR SUNDAY SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD
CU...BUT NOT QUITE AS DENSE.

THE MONDAY SYSTEM COMES TIP-TOEING INTO THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. BUT THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND SHOULD ALLOW
NOTHING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFT IN.

MODELS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR, BUT ETA HAS PICKED UP ON SOME RH
DETAILS IN CANADA. THAT WOULD LEAD US TO SIDE WITH IT TODAY. GDNC
TEMPS ARE UNBELIEVABLY SIMILAR. SO WE WONT DO MUCH CHANGING,
EXCEPT FOR SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT.

.DLH...NONE.
CS