Flooding and Hail in Indiana, August 18, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
202 PM EST SAT AUG 18 2001

AFD WL BE BRF DUE TO IMMINENT SVR WX. WRM FNT HAS MOVD N OF FCST
AREA WHILE CDFNT EXTDS SW FM LO PRES OVR SW WI TO WCNTRL MO. RADAR
SHOWS SVR TSRA MOVG ACRS CNTRL IL. FCST PRBLM IS PCPN CHCS WITH SYS
MOVG ACRS FA.

12Z ETA/AVN MDLS MOST SIMILAR AND ETA APPRS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
BEST...SO WL PREFER ETA. THIS SHOWS CDFNT TO MOV ACRS FA TNGT WITH
STG DYNAMIC LIFT. INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE...SO GUD SVR THREAT
FOR MUCH OF FA. EXPECT FURTHER TSRA DVLPMT SW OF CURRENT LINE ACRS
IL THAT WL SPRD ACRS FA. BLV POPS HIER THAN EITHER NGM/AVN MOS
WARRANTED TNGT. LOBE OF MSTR WL WRAP AROUND 500 MB LOW ACRS MNLY THE
N PART OF THE FA SUN...SO WL KEEP CHC SHRA. LIMITING FACTOR WL BE
LIMITED AMT OF LIFT...BUT BLV A CHC SHRA STILL WARRANTED. CHC WL
DMNSH SW TO NE AS SYS LIFTS NE. CLDNS WL BGN DCRS SW TO NE SUN NGT
INTO MON.

MESOETA SFC TEMPS SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH NGM/AVN MOS...AND WL
USE THOSE VALUES.

.IND...NONE.
ZIMMERMAN

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-181800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1037 AM EST SAT AUG 18 2001

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FROM MID AFTERNOON ON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM CRAWFORDSVILLE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO BEDFORD...BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL INDIANA...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ILLINOIS AND MOVE INTO
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 200 PM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. DESTRUCTIVE HAIL LARGER THAN AN INCH IN
DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE IN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

ZIMMERMAN

INZ028-029-035-043-182000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 PM EST SAT AUG 18 2001

...LARGE HAIL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 200 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RARAR WAS SHOWING A STRONG
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 300 PM...SO THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WILL
BE LIKELY BY THEN.

DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SO BE ALERT TO
THE CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEEK SHELTER. IF YOU LIVE IN A
MOBILE HOME...NOW IS THE TIME TO SEEK ALTERNATE SHELTER.

KOCH

INZ028-035-182015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EST SAT AUG 18 2001

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WARREN AND NORTHERN FOUNTAIN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM EST.

RK