Hail in Minnesota, August 17, 2001

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1055 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2001

UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FCST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT AND
DURATION OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFRNT DROPPING OUT OF
SRN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES ARE INCREASING AND POOLING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 12 MESOETA GUIDANCE IS BEHIND THE CURVE AS LIFTED INDICES ARE
NEARLY DOUBLE THE MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR THIS TIME. EXPECT TSTMS TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE RRV
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WDLY SCATTTERED TSTMS IN REMAINDER OF
ERN ND AND WCNTRL MN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THESE
STORMS AS COLD POOL ALOFT IS QUITE DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
500MB TEMPS DROP BELOW MINUS 15. MODIFIED INL-GFK SOUNDING FROM THIS
AM INCREASES LIFTED INDICES TO MINUS 5 OR 6 RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1900 J/KG. 6KM SHEAR VALUES VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.

WILL BUMP UP FCST AFTERNOON TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. AND
MENTION TSTMS LIKELY WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE NORTHEAST OF A LANGDON
...TO MAYVILLE...TO FAR AND DTL. DVEELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SWD THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

.FGF...NONE.

GUST