Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, June 11 to 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1055 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2001

MCS OVER WISCONSIN THE OBVIOUS CONCERN TONIGHT...AS A BOW ECHO MOVES
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. QUESTION OF THE NIGHT IS...WHAT
WILL CONVECTION DO AS IT CROSSES THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
DEPTH OF COOL AIR IS FAIRLY SHALLOW (A THOUSAND FEET OR SO) PER THE
KGRR VAD WIND PROFILE SO A WEAKENING TREND MAY OCCUR AS THE
CONVECTION TAPS SOME COOLER NEAR SURFACE AIR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE BOW NOW THOUGH...IT APPEARS IT MAY SURVIVE THE LAKE TRIP. KMKX
VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A SOLID 30-35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE BOW...SO GOOD INFLOW IS OCCURRING INTO THE FEATURE. HIGH
THETA-E AIR IS BEING FEED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE
GREATEST FROM ABOUT MUSKEGON SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. BOW SHOULD REACH THE MID LAKE LINE IN
ABOUT AN HOUR (MIDNIGHT) AND START IMPACTING SOUTHWEST LOWER MI IN
THE 1215 AM-1230 AM TIME FRAME. LEFT THE LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND
CHANCE IN THE EASTERN ZONES. MENTIONED STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE IN THE LAKESHORE ZONES SOUTH OF MKG. ZONES ALREADY OUT.

.GRR...NONE.

DUKESHERER

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-121000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
949 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2001

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE PASS ALONG THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT TO SEE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE WEST OF A LUDINGTON TO JACKSON LINE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE HOLLAND AND SOUTH HAVEN
AREAS. THE TIMING ON THESE STORMS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
GREATEST HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST OF STORMS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 65 MPH. HAIL OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE ADDITIONAL THREATS.

DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR LACROSSE SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR CHICAGO...THEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO NEAR FORT WAYNE INDIANA.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 945 PM AND WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
DOWN THE WARM FRONT TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. FACTORS THAT
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A DIMINISHED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE A
STABILIZING AIRMASS THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN...NOT TO
MENTION THE STABLE MARINE LAYER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE
DOWN THE WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LEAD A SUSTENANCE IN STRENGTH. YOU
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

DUKE/GEO

MIZ043-044-050-051-056>058-064>066-071>074-120800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1124 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 400 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OCEANA...MUSKEGON AND NEWAYGO

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     JACKSON...IONIA...CALHOUN AND EATON

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KALAMAZOO...KENT...VAN BUREN...OTTAWA...BARRY AND ALLEGAN

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MONTCALM

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF EASTERN WISCONSIN AND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 1120 PM EDT. THIS
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH
THESE STORMS IN WISCONSIN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

NNNN

DUKESHERER/JK