Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 4, 2001

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1105 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

TOUGH CALL ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF ALL INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER...THEN SEVERE THREAT COULD BE REALIZED. 12Z RUN OF THE
MESOETA CONSISTENT WITH 06Z RUN IN BRINGING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IN ALIGNMENT
WITH THETA-E RIDGE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE...ARGUES FOR SCATTERED
POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 69. MODIFIED DTX SOUNDING
YIELDS ABOUT 2500 J/KG ON A MODEST 77/64...WITH IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG SHOULD CLOUDS CLEAR AND TEMPS PUSH INTO THE LOW 80S. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO CAPES
PUSHING 3000 J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN THE MEANTIME...DRIER
AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ALOFT. CONSEQUENCES OF DRY AIR INTRUSION MAY
BE TO ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT BRIEFLY...BEFORE DRY AIR QUASHES FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALL AND ALL...WILL PEG SEVERE CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SLIGHT...WITH TWIN THREATS OF HAIL TO ONE INCH AND WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH. THE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I
69...BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM.

FOR SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...SHOULD BE A VERY NICE JULY FOURTH
AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PRECIP THREAT OVER.

.DTX...NONE.

OKEEFE

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-042000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1108 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I 69. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A NUMBER OF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS NEED TO COME TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHOULD THESE
CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...THEN THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. SEVERE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 69 UNTIL 4 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE WEATHER INFORMATION.

OKEEFE