Flood in Michigan, February 9 to 10, 2001

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
321 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2001

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING... AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE STATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THEN CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. BOTH MAV AND FWC
TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO PICK UP ON THE BIG DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY.

PLUME OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR CURVE RUNNING FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST PAST THE TIP OF BAJA. A SHORT WAVE RUNNING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN END.
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDLAND/BAY CITY/SAGINAW
AREA OVER TO THE TIP OF THE THUMB MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATE AS THEY WILL BE IN THE COLDER AIR WHILE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD JUST SEE AN INCH
OR LESS. LOWER LAYER COOLS OFF SO FAST THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD THIS EVENING WHEN IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME SLEET TO FALL.
WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS WILL HELP DROP
WIND CHILL VALUES TO BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING OVER ALL LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL FEBRUARY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER WESTERN LOWER AND JUST FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW THE INVERSION
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE LOWER LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GIVE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EVERY 30 TO 48 HOURS. BOTH MRF AND ETA-XX SHOW
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS DO SHOW A LITTLE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG EACH SURFACE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. BOUNDARY LAYER COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW WITH THE FIRST WEAK FRONT ON MONDAY. 1000-850MB
THICKNESS RISES ABOVE 1300M ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
FRONT AND THUS IT LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR TUESDAY.
NEXT BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO JUST
SNOW WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BELOW 1300M.

.DTX...GALE WARNING LAKE HURON...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
       TONIGHT.
       GALE WARNING LAKE ST CLAIR...TONIGHT.
       URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA
       UNTIL 6 PM.

KEYES

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-091200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 AM EST THU FEB 8 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE OR TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DRAINAGE WILL
BE POOR IN THOSE AREAS WHERE SNOW STILL COVERS OPENINGS TO STORM
SEWERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO...AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
STRETCHES OF WATER OVER ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...
PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP
LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WILL BE BETWEEN
NOON AND 4 PM...AND 2 PM TO 8 PM FOR POINTS FROM METRO FLINT
SOUTH...INCLUDING METRO DETROIT.

ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO...
TELEVISION...OR CABLE TELEVISION STATION...FOR ALL OF YOUR WEATHER
INFORMATION.

OKEEFE/TILLEY

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
205 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. ONE OR TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

TO THE NORTH...AROUND FLINT...THE TRI CITIES...AND THUMB...THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DRAINAGE WILL
BE POOR IN THOSE AREAS WHERE SNOW STILL COVERS OPENINGS TO STORM
SEWERS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STRETCHES OF WATER OVER
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...
PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 2
AND 6 PM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT THE SAME
SPEED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO...
TELEVISION...OR CABLE TELEVISION STATION...FOR ALL OF YOUR WEATHER
INFORMATION.

TILLEY/OKEEFE