Flood in Michigan, February 10 to 11, 2001

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
402 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2001

AFTER A BRIEF TASTE OF SPRING, SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY HAS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THE REGION BACK INTO WINTER.
LAKE-EFFECT CLOUD BANDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.  SOME
CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDLAND/SAGINAW REGION.  EXPECT
THAT THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
INVERSION BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND 5KFT AND THE LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTIVE LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AND MAY GRAB A FEW MORE DEGREES ON THE
DOWNSIDE BEFORE STEADYING OUT.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A RISE DURING
THE DAY, AS COLD ADVECTION AT 925MB AND A GOOD MIXED LAYER WILL
OFFSET MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.

NCEP SUITE SOLUTIONS SELF-CONSISTENT DURING THE UPCOMING NEAR-TERM
PERIODS.  PRIMARILY DEALING WITH LAKE-EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO
WILL LATCH ONTO THE DETAILS OF THE NCEP ETA-22, NSSL ETA-22KF AND
THE DTX ETA-6 SOLUTIONS.  LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA AS THE LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME DEEPENS THE SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY.  THE ETA-6 AND NSSL ETA-22KF
SHOW A SERIES OF BANDS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED.  THE
STRONG NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER
(20-25KTS) TO ADVECT THE LAKE CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
SO FAR THIS MORNING, THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A FEW GOOD HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS ACROSS THE
FLINT/PONTIAC/DETROIT AREAS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH
THE MORNING.  BUT THE SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ENOUGH, SO WILL WORD
AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INSTEAD OF FLURRIES AND TAPER TO FLURRIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW SLACKENS.

FOR TONIGHT THE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER AND VEERS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT
THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LAKE CLOUDS COULD HANG ON LONGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  THE LACK OF A GOOD SNOWPACK WILL PREVENT STRONG SURFACE
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, BUT TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -14C TO -17C
RANGE.

A QUIET SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REGION ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE.  TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
IS DISPLACED EASTWARD.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  WILL DROP THE CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 ON MONDAY, BASED ON THE NEW NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDING THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER NORTH.

STILLH VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS OUT ACROSS THE CWFA DUE TO THE
RUN-OFF FROM YESTERDAY/S RAIN AND SNOW MELT.

.DTX...GALE WARNING...LAKE HURON...THIS MORNING.
       GALE WARNING...LAKE ST CLAIR...THIS MORNING.

MANN