Flash Flood and Flooding in Massachusetts, April 1 to 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
315 PM EST SAT MAR 31 2001

...RECORD MONTHLY WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND VERY HEAVY SNOW PACK CONT TO CAUSE HYDRO CONCERNS
FOR SNE THIS APRIL...

FCST:  SLIGHT CONCERN ABOUT WX FOR SE MA LATE SUNDAY THRU EARLY MON
       MON AFTN AS 12Z UK HAS COME NORTH AND CANADIAN MODELS
       ARENT AS FAR OFF THE COAST AS 12Z AVN/ETA MODELS.  NGM
       IS SOLID ON RH E MA BUT NO QPF. THERE IS ROOM FOR NWD DVLPT
       UNTIL GTLKS PORTION OF THE DVLPG NEG TILT SYSTEM PASSES 70W.
       OF INTEREST ARE SVRL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z/31 MRF ENSEMBLE. BLV
       BRISK AND DAMP OR WHITE WILL EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE
       DISCRIPTORS FOR PTNS SE NEW ENG LATE SUN THRU MIDDAY MON.

       SO NOT YET OUT OF THE WOODS ON COASTAL. PLENTY OF PAVEMENT
       MELTING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS IF SNOW DVLPS. PARTIAL TKNS
       SUPPORT PCPN BEING MOSTLY SNOW LATE SUN THRU MON.

       SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN LOW LVLS LATE SUN-MON.

LR: OVERALL SEEMINGLY DEPRESSED SRN STREAM JET STILL WARRANTS CONCERN
    NEXT TWO WEEKS...BUT FOR NOW...NOTHING REAL BIG APPEARS ON
    HORIZON FOR SNE. SUBSTANTIAL PROJECTED PLAINS STATES EVENT AT
    THE END OF THIS COMING WEEK MAY YET GET FORCED BENEATH US LATE
    NEXT WKND...BUT NOT DEALING WITH THAT TIL ARD 4/4.

YDYS EVENT: PNSBOS POSTED. SMALL CHC ONE MORE UPDATE BY DAYS END.

MQE: 3/30 EVENT QPF OF 2.83 INCLUDING 0.5 SFALL RAISED MAR TOTAL TO
     13.07 WHICH BETTERS THE PREV WETTEST MARCH OF 10.96 IN 1968.
     RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1885. OTHER 100 YR RECORD AT READING MA
     WITH 12.71 MARCH TOTAL. A NUMBER OF REPS OF MONTHLIES 10-NR 15.
     DAILY PCPN RERS YDY AT PVD...ORH..MQE.  RERMQE AND PVD POSTED.
     OTHER DATA IN PNSBOS.

     MQE MONTHLY SFALL 41.4...3RD SNOWIEST MARCH ON RECORD THERE
     SURPASSED ONLY BY 52 1956 AND 42.2 IN 1916.

     WETTEST MONTHS AT MQE  8/55  18.78  6/98 17.32 (KENMORE SQ
     MUDDY RVR FLOOD)...6/82 13.73 THEN MAR 2001.

SFALL: NO STATS BUT IMPRESSIVE DEPTHS THIS MORNING RANGING FM 24-52
       INCHES AND NO DOUBT HEAVILY WATER LADEN WITH ARD 8 OF
       OF WATER. WHERE 2 FT OR MORE 5 WATER EQUIV AND WHERE 4 FT
       ARD 10 WATER EQUIV.  52 AT MARLOW NH OTRW PREDOMINENTLY +/-
       6 OF 30 FM NW AND FAR N CENTRAL MA THRU S NH MONADNOCKS.

HYDRO: PREFER MAINSTEM RELEASE WITHOUT 60F TD AND RFALL THIS APRIL
       BUT EVEN WITHOUT...MINOR TO MDT FLOODING LIKELY FOR ALL
       MAINSTEM RIVERS MERR RVR TO CT RVR...SOMETIME APRIL OR
       POSSIBLY DELAYED TIL EARLY MAY? PLS SEE ESFBOS FOR MORE
       DISCUSSION.

       THE 3/30 EVENT WILL AVG JUST BLO THAT OF 3/21 GENERATED
       EVENT. FLOODING OF CONCORD AND CHARLES WHILE EASING AS MINOR
       EARLY NEXT WEEK IS TENTATIVELY PROJECTED THRU AT LEAST
       TUESDAY 4/3..IF NOT THRU WEDNESDAY 4/4.

       TX FOR EMAILS ON MARCH MONTHLIES >10 WATER EQUIV AND
       INCLUDED IN PNSBOS.

WEB: RER/S FXD ON HPAGE.

MEDIA/NWS MTTG: NWS CT RVR VLY MTTG 4/11 REMINDER TO RSVP SOON IF
                YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY. THANK YOU.

.BOX...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS PARTS E MA AND N RI SEE BOSFLSBOS RWUS42
    ...SCA (LEFTOVR) ALL OUTER WATERS.
    ...SCA MAY REQ BOS HARB AND NARR BAY SUN NITE

DRAG