Heavy Snow in Maine, December 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
125 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2001

ZONES...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TO THE EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE ENE.

05Z SURFACE ANAL SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW EAST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW...OUTSIDE THE 40N 70W CROSSHAIR...WHILE THEY SHOW ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SPEED....MOVING WELL TO THE EAST BY 18Z TODAY.
THEY ALSO AGREE IN THE INTENSITY FAIRLY WELL...WHICH ISNT ALL THAT
DEEP.

THE WEAK 850 MB CIRCULATION BARELY REACHES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MEANING LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION.  THE SYSTEM DOESNT EVEN CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB
...ANOTHER INDICATION OF HOW WEAK IT IS.

THERE IS A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW /HALF MILE VISIBILITY/ ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MOST AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE SEEING
LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME.

SOME MODERATE SNOW LIKELY TO REACH SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD COVER IT.  TO THE NORTH...EVEN LESS
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE NGM SHOWS A LITTLE LESS QPF WHILE THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT.  MAX AMOUNS AROUND 4/10 OF AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN NH WITH
LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH NORTHERN AREAS.  NO QPF AFTER 18Z.

MODELS KEEP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND AFTER 18Z BUT SOME
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER THIS EVENT THE WEATHER SHOULD WARM UP AGAIN...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.  THE 00Z AVN WARMS UP THE 850
MB TEMPS TO PLUS 5 OR HIGHER /EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS MRF/ TO
SUPPORT RAIN...AND NOT SNOW ON THURSDAY.

WILL ADJUST THE OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...CALLING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND WARMER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  IN FACT WILL HAVE TO
BUMP UP TEMPS A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH 850 MB
TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO.

CWF...
WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING FOR TODAY.  THE MRPCWN GUIDANCE FORECASTS 24
KTS AT MISM1 AT 12Z THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM IS WEAK...SO NO MORE THAN
A MINIMAL SCA AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.  THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP WINDS CLOSE...IF NOT ABOVE
...SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD LET
UP VERY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW ZIPS TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  WINDS REMAIN RATHER
WEAK RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

PWMWRKCWF AVBL IN AWIPS.

FCSTID = 2

.GYX...
ME...SCA.
NH...SCA.