Lightning Strike in Maine, August 3, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
125 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001

THE FCST PROBLEM FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE NWD EXTENT OF THE PCPN
SHIELD WITH THE WV PASSES ALG THE FNTL BOUNDARY LATER TNGT AND THE
1ST HALF OF SAT.

THE SFC BDNRY HAS SAGGED THRU EXTREME SWRN ME AND SRN NH.  CONECTION
IS DEVELOPING ALG THE FNT...AND THIS SHUD CONTINUE THRUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN...SINCE THIS IS THE ONLY BOUNDARY AVBL FOR
FOCUS.  N OF THIS...THE AMS IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH
NO FOCUS WL LEAVE THIS AREA DRY.

THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE FACT IS HAS
SLIPPED THRU MUCH OF NH AND ME LEADS ME TO BLV THAT PERHAPS ONLY THE
SRNMOST PTN OF THE FA WL GET INTO THE BETTER MOCONV WITH THE WV TO
DEVELOP IN THE FNT LATER TNGT.  THIS GOES ALG WITH THE ETA SOLN.

HOWEVER...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT USUAL IN THIS SITU...SINCE THE AVN
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NGM SUGGEST THAT THE FNT WL HALT SOON...AND
WAVER WL THE SFC WV PASSES.  WL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROA APCH AND
HAVE A BUFFER ZN JUST N OF THE EXTREME SRN PTN OF THE FA WITH CHC
POPS.

DRIER AMS IN THE NRN ZNS MAKES A P/CLDY FCST EASY TO TAKE...AND MAY
END UP DOING THIS FOR CNTRL ZNS AS WELL.  WL DEFINITELY GO WITH A
MUCH CLOUDIER FCST FOR THE SRN ZNS.

MOS NUMBERS LUK REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FA...AND MAY HAVE TO EDGE
UP TEMPS FOR THE SRNMOST ZNS...WHERE THE FNT HANGS UP.

THE WX FOR SAT PREDICATED ON THE ABV AS WELL...SINCE THE SFC WV WL
PASS S OF THE FA DURG THE MRNG HRS.  WITH MULTIPLE S/W IN THE
FLO...WL PROBABLY ONCE AGAIN AHVE A BUFFER ZN FOR -SHRA/-TSRA FOR
CNTRL ZNS.  ATTM...WL LEAVE THE NRN ZNS DRY...SINCE MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHUD LIMIT THE AMT OF CONVECTION.

AGAIN...THE FCST PROBLEM WL BE THE SRNMOST ZNS...WITH THE PASSING
SFC WV.  FOR NOW...WL GO WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST.  FEEL FAIRLY
CERTAIN THAT SRNMOST ZNS WL SEE PCPN...BUT THE PROBLEM IS HOW FAR N
TO BRING THE HIER POPS.  WL USE PWM AS THE CUTOFF.

WITH CLDS S...AND A CHANGE IN AMS N...MOS NUMBERS LUK OK.

WL CLEAR THE ENTIRE FA SAT NGT...SINCE THE PSUH BHNDTHE LAST S/W
APPEARS TO BE ENUF TO PUSH THE FNT SWD.  WITH THE AMS CHANGE...WL
LEAN TWD THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS.  WL ADD PATCHY FOG MOST ZNS.

SUN LUKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY OF THE WEEEKEND.  LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO
BE LOW ENUF TO ALLOW M/SUNNY SKIES...AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN.  THE
SFC GRAD WL BE LGT...SO WL BRING SEA BREEZES IN ALL CST AREAS.  WITH
THE RIDGING...WL LEAN TWD THE SLIGHTLY HIER AVN MOS NUMBERS FOR
MAXES.

FOR THE EXTENDED...HEAT COMES BACK WITH THE RIDGE FOR MON AND TUE.
WL FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND BRING THE FNT THRU TUE NGT...AND INCLUDE
POPS WITH THE PASSAGE.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE FNT FOR
THU AND FRI...AND WL INCLUDE POPS FOR BOTHE DAYS.

ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WL BE BLO SCA THRU THE PD.

PRELIM WRKZFP/WRKCWF AVBL SOON.  AS ALWAYS...COMMENTS/OPINIONS
WELCOME.

.GYX...NONE.

HAYES