Flash Flood in New York, August 3, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001

ONCE AGAIN OUR FCST AREA REMAINS LARGELY HIGH AND DRY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING ALL AROUND US. MCS WHICH DRENCHED
ERIE-CLEVE AREAS EARLIER THIS AM JUST CLIPPED SW CHAUT CO AND HAS
NOW DROPPED WELL SOUTHEAST INTO PA. DECENT VORT MAX SHOWS UP NICELY
ON WV LOOP OVER ONTARIO E OF GGN BAY AND WILL DROP SE TWD ST LAWR
VALLEY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MSAS PARAMATERS SHOW POOLING DEW
POINTS...BEST CAPES...AND LI'S TO -6 OVER NORTH COUNTRY SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS REGION REST OF AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO AND POTENTIAL OF
LINGERING CONVECTION TONIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF ANY OVER SRN TIER OR
FINGER LAKES ON SAT PM.

MODELS ALL SHOW 30-50 POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT AM TEMPTED TO DOWNPLAY
THEM JUST BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND OLD SAYING "WHEN IN
DROUGHT LEAVE IT OUT". BUT HIGH DEW PTS IN LOW 70S LINGER AND STILL
DONT TRUST THESE LAKE BOUNDARIES WITH SUCH JUICE. OLD COLD FRONT HAS
JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT FOR THE MOMENT AS THE SW FLOW UP LAKE ERIE HAS
WON OUT OVER NIAG/BUF REGION AND ACROSS ALL OF NIAG PEN AND EAST TO
ROC. THERE STILL IS A PUSH SE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR THOUGH...AS
REFLECTED BY BAND OF MID CLOUD FROM NEAR YYZ-DTW...SO WE WILL HAVE A
BATTLE ZONE DEVELOP LATER ON SO SOME CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE OVER
NIAGARA PENINSULA LATER IN PM AND IF THIS DEVELOPS COULD DRIFT
ACROSS BUF AREA THIS EVE WHEN LAKE WIND FINALLY GIVES IN TO SYNOPTIC
NRLY FLOW. SO...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW 30 POP EVE SHWR/TSTM BUF TO ROC.
LEAVE IN EARLY E OF LK ONT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY. SRN TIER HAS
STABILIZED DUE TO EARLIER SHWRS AND CLOUD BUT SOME SUN EXPECTED
LATER AND NEW ACTIVITY WILL POP ON OLD BOUNDARIES SO WILL MAINTAIN
40 POP OVERNIGHT THERE.

ENOUGH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST
NEAR THE LAKES SO ANY MORNING CLOUD SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.  STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE INLAND SO PTLY SUNNY WILL DO. CANT
RULE OUT A SHOWER ESP NR THE PA BORDER...BUT POPS CLOSER TO 20 SO
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. CLEAR SAT NT AND SUNNY SUNDAY ALL ZONES AS
MID LAYERS WARM MORE AND CAP.

AS FOR TEMPS...MAVS CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF BEING SEVERAL DEG TOO
LOW SO WLL LEAN TWD WARMER FWCS. DRY GROUND IS RESULTING IN TEMPS A
FEW DEG HIGHER WITH FULL SUN THAN MODELS INDICATE. ADDING ABOUT 16C
TO 850S HAS WORKED..SO WITH +13 ON SAT AND +16 ON SUNDAY...SEE MID
80S AND NEAR 90 IN STORE.

EXTENDED...HOT ON MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS...SHOULD
NUDGE INTO LOW 90S MOST AREAS. RIDGE FLATTENS ON TUES AND ALLOWS
FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS AREA TUES NT BUT LOOKS WEAK. WLL CHC
SHWR/TSTM LATE TUES/TUES NT. DRY AND WARM ON WED AND THURS. MORE
HUMID ON FRI AND WLL GO WITH CHC PM TSTM. SOME SIGNS OF COOLER WX
THEREAFTER AS RIDGE RETROGRADES AND ALLOWS FOR TROFFINESS IN
NORTHEAST BUT THAT'S WAY OUT THERE.

HYDROWISE...REGION IS PARCHED. LITTLE OR NO RELIEF FROM THIS SYSTEM.
NEXT CHC OF RAIN NOT UNTIL LATER TUESDAY AND THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ANY BIG DEAL.

THATS IT FROM THE BUF THIS AFTERNOON. WRKZONES BY 245. FINALS BY 330.
TAKE IT EASY.

.BUF...NONE.

MCLAUGHLIN