Hail in Louisiana, February 16, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CST FRI FEB 16 2001

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH OF
COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO SOUTH OF NATCHEZ. 88D INDICATING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...WINDS ARE PICKING UP BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 25
TO 30 DEGREES COLDER.

MODELS AGREE VERY WELL THIS  RUN ON SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
FORECASTS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT THE STATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
SAT. COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THIS
WILL LEND TO WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS...NOT SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY. 5500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY 12Z SAT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO SOME CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE
SURFACE.

SEVERAL PROBLEMS FOR THIS PACKAGE EXIST. THE FIRST...ENDING OF
CONVECTION. THE SECOND...WILL THERE BE ANY PRECIP WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE/500MB TROUGH ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN CWFA.
THE THIRD...WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FOURTH...TIMING OF
THE CLEARING LINE.

SQUALL LINE HAS MADE ITS WAY STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE
NORTHERN END OF THE LINE HAS ACCELERATED GREATLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...WHILE THE SOUTHERN END HAS SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES FOR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AS THE BEST FORCING...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY SHIFT TO THE EAST...HOWEVER THE PRECIP MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY OVER. AS 500MB TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MAKE THEIR WAY
EAST...THIS COULD INITIATE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH AND
SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT. BOTH THE MOS AND
MAV GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE. WILL COMPROMISE ON OVERNIGHT
MINS...BUT WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX NUMBERS OF THE MAV
(CLOUD COVER). WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS...WILL INCLUDE THE WORDING OF "CAUTION ON AREA LAKES"
ALL ZONES.

ISENTROPIC FORECASTS ARE INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO BEGIN
OCCURRING AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE
PICS...CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS. THIS AREA WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
SO AM RELUCTANT TO BEGIN CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW VERY LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS HANGING IN ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AROUND 12Z.
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE LAST TO CLEAR AND COULD EXPERIENCE SPRINKLES
DURING THE MORNING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITS THE STATE.

IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS IN THE PACKAGE. OTHER TRENDS LOOK OK.

24-HR QPF DISCUSSION...AT 00Z SATURDAY...MOST OF THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE SHIFTED
INTO AL AND FAR SOUTHERN MS.  BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...THERE MAY BE UP TO
3/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD PRECIP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A MERIDIAN...RALEIGH...BROOKHAVEN LINE.  BEHIND THE FRONT...UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 1/4 INCH IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST PRECIP ENDING
BY 08Z.

.PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 37/49/25/55 2-00
MEI 39/51/24/53 4-00

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
32

JANWRKLSR 000
TTAA00 KJAN DDHHMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 PM CST FRI FEB 16 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH/COUNTY LOCATION....

1140 AM    VICKSBURG                 MS   WIND DAMAGE
02/16/01   WARREN                         TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
                                          REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

1230 PM    DURANT                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
02/16/01   HOLMES                         POWER LINES AND TREES
                                          DOWN...ROOF DAMAGE

1245 PM    WINONA                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
02/16/01   MONTGOMERY                     TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

1245 PM    DURANT                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
02/16/01   HOLMES                         POWER LINES DOWN...TREES
                                          UPROOTED...ROOF DAMAGE

0140 PM    STARKVILLE                MS   WIND DAMAGE
02/16/01   OKTIBBEHA                      WIDESPREAD POWER LINES
                                          DOWN...TREES SNAPPED
                                          OFF...SEVERAL BUSINESS
                                          SIGNS BLOWN OFF.  REPORTED
                                          BY MS STATE UNIV.

0140 PM    STARKVILLE                MS   WIND DAMAGE
02/16/01   OKTIBBEHA                      TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN...PARTS OF ROOF BLOWN
                                          AWAY REPORTED BY MSU
                                          STUDENT

0145 PM    COLUMBUS                  MS   WIND DAMAGE
02/16/01   LOWNDES                        TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-171200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST FRI FEB 16 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 9 PM
FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF A NEWTON...RALEIGH...MONTICELLO
LINE...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF QUITMAN...LAUREL...COLUMBIA
AND HATTIESBURG.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
STRAIGHTLINE WINDS.  HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTENSE UNTIL THEY
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE LATER THIS EVENING.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING INTO THE 40S.
THE COMBINATION WILL BRING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S...A DRAMATIC CHANGE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. IF GOING
OUTDOORS TONIGHT...WEAR PLENTY OF LAYERED CLOTHING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

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