Flash Flood in Louisiana, December 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 AM CST WED DEC 12 2001

EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
OF SW LA INTO SE TX FROM BETWEEN KBPT AND KLCH TO KUTS. DURING THE
DAY THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES REFORMS
OVER TX AND OK AND THEM MOVES ACROSS OK..NW AR AND MO. BY MID DAY
THE LOW WILL BE NEAR CENTRAL OR N OK WITH WARM FRONT REACHING
ACREOSS SE OK INTO S AR AND NE LA WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL TX. BY EARLY EVENING THE LOW WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO MO WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH NEAR A KTXK
TO KGGG AND KLFK LINE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SLOWS IN ITS EAST PROGRESSION AND
LOOKS TO EXTEND ALONG THE EASTERN MOST ZONES NEAR A KMLU TO KESF
LINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE
MID 70S. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH READINGS NEAR 60 OVER THE EAST WHERE WARMER
AIR IS SLOWER TO BE REPLACES ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT.

ALOFT STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO PULL GULF AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROUDCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROFILER
DATA THIS MORNING INDICATED AROUND 80 KNOT SPEEDS AT JET LEVEL
WITH AREA BECOMING SITUATED IN THE RIGHT REAR PART OF JET OF NEAR
100 KNOT SPEEDS AROUND MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE LIFT OVER FORECAST AREA AND CONTRIBUTE TO
THE POSSIBLILTY OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SEVERE IN THE 400 AM ZONES.
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER TX
DURING THE DAY REACHING THE LOWER TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND MID DAY
AND THEN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH OK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT TIMEING OF DRY SLOT MOVING FROM TEXAS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD END RAINFALL
WEST SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH MOST ALL RAIN OVERWITH BY
MIDNIGHT OVER THE EAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TROUGH
ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRETTY QUICK AND WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND I WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN ZONES.

WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN FORECAST BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE LOWEST VALUES
ABOVE ONE INCH IN  3HR PERIODS. THIS MAY BECOME CLOSE TO
SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL OMIT AT THIS TIME.

I LIKE THE AVN WARMER NUMBERS FOR TODAY AND WILL STAY BETWEEN
THE NGM MOS AND AVN HIGHS FOR 3RD PERIOD. FOR LOWS WILL STAY NEAR
BOTH SINCE THEY DO NOT DEVIATE BY MUCH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES DURING THE
WEEKEND LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

06

SHV 072 048/060 038 060 9141
MLU 071 052/060 040 060 +561
TXK 069 046/057 037 057 9240
TYR 073 045/057 035 059 9130
LFK 074 047/062 037 062 9030

.SHV...NONE.