Damaging Wind in Kentucky, October 24, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

12Z SFC CHART HAD A WELL DEFINED COLD FNT LOCATED FM MSP TO SRN WI
TO NE MO TO SE MO. GOOD LLVL MOISTURE WITH 50+ DWPTS EXTENDING AS
FAR NORTH AS APN. 60+ DWPTS HAVE PUSHED NORTH THRU ERN MO AND CNTRL
KY/FAR SRN IN. ERN KY HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY WITH DWPTS STILL
IN THE 50S AT PRESS TIME. UPPER AIR CHARTS ALL INDICATE A VERTICALLY
STACKED TROF OVER THE CNTRL US WITH STRONG INFLOW JETS AT ALL LVLS.
PROBLEM FOR ERN KY IS THE LACK OF MID LVL MOISTURE. ALL LVLS FROM
85H/70H/50H HAVE DRY AIR ON A 40 TO 60 KT JET WITH THE BEST WINDS AT
70H. HOWEVER THE FETCH IS FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND NOT THE GULF. THIS
SOURCE REGION HAS DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 16 DEG C.  THIS LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS GOING TO LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE BEST
RAINFALL.

MODELS ALL LOOK GOOD WITH THE AVN THE MOST CONSISTENT AS STATED BY
HPC. WILL FOLLOW AVN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS FCST. FNTL PASSAGE
THRU ERN KY BETWEEN 02Z TO 05Z. EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN CWFA TO
MEASURE BUT DYNAMICS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SVR. HOWEVER...THIS SAID AND
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SPEED OF THE 85H WINDS GIVE US THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LLVL DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY DOWNWARD TRANSPORT. AT
THE VERY LEAST WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGETOPS OF
ERN KY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PD AND EXTEND IT INTO THE DAY ON THU. WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF AN EXTENSION WILL BE NECESSARY.

COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SAT MORNING WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR OUR NRN AND ERN COUNTIES. BY SAT
AFTERNOON THE TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO STOP THE SNOW AND THE FETCH
CHANGES TO CUT US OFF FROM LK MI. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD TEMPS FOR SUN AM AS THE HIGH MOVES TO WRN KY AND WE
SET UP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE VALLEYS WILL TRAP THE
COLD AIR AND WHAT HEAT IS LEFT WILL RADIATE AWAY.

EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH WARMING TREND THRU WED. NEXT SHOT OF
MOISTURE NOT UNTIL FRI WITH THE MRF.

.JKL...WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN 2/3 CWFA THRU NOON THU.

DUSTY