Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, April 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
322 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2001

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY.  WITH SFC FRONT STAYING NORTH OF
HERE...WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AT LEAST.

RADAR SHOWS A SHOWER OR TWO OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO.  OF GREATER
CONCERN ARE STRONG TSRA OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA MOVING TOWARD
OUR AREA NEAR SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SVR WATCH ISSUED IN
INDIANA UP TO OUR CWAS WESTERN BORDER.  TSRA SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  MORE TSRA COULD ALSO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CURRENT TSRA OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA...AS INSOLATION HAS CAUSED GREATER INSTABILITY THERE.  WITH
AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR...HAVE ISSUED CLESPSILN HIGHLIGHTING
THE THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH TSRA LIKELY WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES AND
DAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE...USING MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WORDING IN WEST WITH FRONT LIFTING FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT.

WITH FRONT CONTINUING NORTH...TSRA CHANCE IS LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NEAR SFC AND
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ILL KEEP 30% POPS ALL ZONES FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA.  WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND JET
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

WITH 60 DEWPOINTS AROUND...FWC LOWS ARE TOO LOW...SO ILL BUMP THEM
UP A FEW DEGREES.  FWC ALSO APPEARS TOO LOW FOR SATURDAYS HIGHS
WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND THAN TODAY.  FWC HIGHS LOOK GOOD FOR
SUNDAY.

MISILN OUT.

.ILN...NONE.

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-062200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

A WARM FRONT CROSSED OHIO LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR LAKE
ERIE.  WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE THE OHIO RIVER REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY MIDNIGHT.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AS WELL.

WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO HAVE EMERGENCY PROCEDURES IN
PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION.

CONIGLIO