Hail in Kansas, September 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND TEMPS
ALL PERIODS.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED INCREASING NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH
130KT 250M JET ENTERING NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND 90KT NEARING
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. 500MB HEIGHTS WERE RISING NICELY OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE WAS ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL JUST UPSTREAM OF WESTERN KANSAS WERE AROUND -14C
HOWEVER 700MB TEMPS WERE AROUND 10C WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAD
PUSHED THE BEST 850MB MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. 19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED PRIMARY PREFRONTAL TROF OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH DRYLINE FROM HLC SOUTHWEST TO BGD AND COLD AIR
STILL ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

COLD AIR SHOULD REACH THE ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL
TROFFING SETTING UP GOOD CONVERGENCE BEFOREHAND. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE IN PLACE OVER ALL ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BECOMING
MORE LIMITED FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SHORTWAVE
TROF DIVING INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD BRING BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND WILL
KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BUT WILL NEED CHANCE POPS
EVEN IN THE WEST WITH THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARIES
AROUND. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP NICELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP
BREEZY WORDING IN PLACE.

AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROF FINALLY SWING THROUGH
AROUND 12Z AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT POPS HERE. CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT ALL
ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON BUT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND WILL ONLY TWEAK GOING NUMBERS.

WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE POKES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WOULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COOL NIGHT. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE GROUND CONDITIONS
WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. WILL GO MORE TOWARD MAV NUMBERS HERE
WITH UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AT THE SURFACE.
UPSLOPE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RECOVERING TOO FAST WITH CONTINUED
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

CURRENT MRF LOOKS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH GOING FORECAST.  SHOULD
DEVELOP UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND HOLD
THROUGH LATE WEEK WHEN WAVE MOVES INTO REGION THROUGH RIDGE.  WILL
KEEP CHANCES OF TSRA FOR FRIDAY.  GOING TEMPS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD
WITH COOL BEGINNING OF EXTENDED THEN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY
10.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/065 041/068 044 410
GCK 055/065 040/069 044 400
EHA 057/068 041/071 045 300
LBL 058/067 042/069 044 410
HYS 055/063 038/066 042 400
P28 062/069 044/071 047 620

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/REITER