Hail in Kansas, September 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2001

ANY STORMS THAT FIRE THIS EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SO
WE WILL KEEP 30% POPS FOR WESTERN PART OF CWA FOR TONIGHT BUT ONLY
20% FURTHER EAST. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY ACTIVE DAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. AS A CLOSED LOW DIGS SOUTH DOWN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK CAP...AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN NW
SECTIONS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE TO THE SE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WE WILL UP POPS TO 50% FOR ALL BUT THE NW AND EXTREME
SE COUNTIES(40%). IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO BY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MCS DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SO WE WILL INCREASE POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO 40% FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH EACH RUN THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH ON SATURDAYS FRONT IS DIMINISHED. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS STRONGER
THAN PROGGED BY ANY OF THE MODELS. HENCE A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AND
PUSHES THE HIGH TO THE EAST QUICKLY. WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
HANGING AROUND AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL UP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO 30% FOR SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SUNDAY
COULD BE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER DAY WITH 60KT ANVIL LEVEL WINDS
SERVING TO GREATLY ENHANCE PRECIP EVACUATION FROM THE UPDRAFTS. IN
ADDITION THE MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS BY SUNDAY. THUS THE
SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS.

EXTENDED:

MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO EVOLVE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AFTER THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT ARE STRUGGLING WITH PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WITH BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS. ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT
WITH KEEPING A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WITH TIMING
DIFFICULTIES QUITE LARGE AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY IN THE
VICINITY WILL NOT TRY TO BREAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN INTO
SPECIFIC PERIODS. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
ACROSS THE U.S./CAN BORDER SHOULD KEEP ANY COLD OUTBREAKS IN CHECK
AND WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CLIMO TEMPS INTO THURSDAY.
WESTERLIES LOOK TO BE EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BY LATE
WEEK AND MAY BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY
PERIOD AND WILL SUGGEST SUCH AN EVOLUTION FOR FRIDAY ON.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE 8-10 DAY FORECAST SEE OUR
WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 063/084 063/082 060 253
GCK 062/082 060/080 060 255
EHA 060/088 060/082 058 345
LBL 062/087 063/082 060 244
HYS 063/077 060/080 060 343
P28 064/084 065/082 063 244

.DDC...NONE.

FINCH