Hail in Kansas, September 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT FRI SEP 14 2001

BASED UPON A COMPARISON OF INITIALIZATION AND TRACKING OF FEATURES
OUT TO 18Z...WILL GO WITH THE ETA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

TONIGHT THE ETA AND ETA KF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH THE ETA KF SHOWING WIDESPREAD TS
DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK
LLJ ADV MOISTURE IN IN COMBINATION WITH GOOD BL THETA E CONVERGENCE
WILL RAISE POPS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. OF CONCERN IS
INDICATIONS OF MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AREA OF H5-H5 OMEGA SEEMS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND THEREFORE
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOT THAT STRONG AND WILL
NOT SQUASH CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW NIGHT THE ETA AND AVN ARE
BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MCS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...STRONG THICKNESS DIVERGENCE
AND BIG H5-H3 OMEGA BULLS EYE RIGHT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE. WILL RAISE
POPS AGAIN BUT NOT GO CRAZY AS TRACK IS UNCERTAIN OUT TO THIS PERIOD
AND ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF MCS WILL BE SERIOUSLY OPPRESSED.

MODELS DIVERGE IN THE EXTENDED...FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND EVEN MODEL
FROM RUN TO RUN. WITH THIS DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP THE
EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH INTACT AND CONTINUE TREND INTO FRIDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

SVEN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-150600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MDT FRI SEP 14 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AIR MASS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY HAS BECOME RELATIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL RESULT IN THE INITIATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE INTO THE
EVENING AND NIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. SHOULD ANY BECOME SEVERE THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH OR GREATER. BRIEF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS ARE BEST FOR
THE FORMATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.

RJC