Hail in Kansas, May 8, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2001

FCST FOCUS ON RETURN OF MOISTURE AND POSITION OF BOUNDARY/PRECIP
CHCS NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH TEMPS.

WILL LEAN ON THE AVN/ETA.

LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWS GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY ACROSS WEST TX WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE DEWPOINT IN EXCESS OF 60F ACROSS EASTERN OK HOWEVER
UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP EAST SFC WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION SO AS TO
KEEP THIS MOISTURE AWAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

TONIGHT...NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND
WILL WATCH TRENDS THROUGH ISSUANCE TIME FOR FINAL DECISION ON ZONE
WORDING. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS/SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DEEPER 850MB MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX
MAY TAKE AIM AT CENTRAL KS LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY ACT TO GENERATE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THIS REGION.  CURRENT LOWS LOOK ON TRACK
AND WILL FOLLOW.

WEDS...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
NEB. 850MB WAA ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
REACH LEVELS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE FAN/FWC NUMBERS.  700MB WAA ALSO
OCCURS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN COOL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY BOUNDARY TRIGGER WILL NOT INSERT
PRECIP CHCS.

WEDS NIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...LACK OF ANY CAPPING
COULD ALLOW A ROGUE STORM TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
WILL LET THE FCST RIDE FOR NOW.  LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
AND CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE.

THU-FRI...AXIS OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE THU/FRI.  UNLESS MASSIVE
CONVECTION WOULD PUSH ANY BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA WOULD EXPECT
STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.  HAVE MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT
REMOVING SLIGHT CHC POPS HOWEVER AND MAY USE THE GOOD OLD FUNNEL
FCST APPROACH AND FINE TUNE THOSE SLIGHT CHCS TOMORROW AND REMOVE
THEM IF NECESSARY. BY FRIDAY...WAVE SHOULD TRAVERSE THE REGION
GIVING THE BOUNDARY A SOUTHWARD PUSH AND INCREASING STORMS CHCS
AREAWIDE.  CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT CHANGE.

SAT-TUE...UPPER FLOW TO AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH ROCKIES RIDGE/GREAT LAKES
TROUGH. SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH SATURDAY AND WILL REMOVE POPS
FOR CENTRAL KS BUT KEEP POPS ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE EARLY.  BY SUNDAY...SFC BOUNDARY MAY BE LURKING JUST
SOUTH OF THE STATE AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.  BEST CHC FOR PRECIP
WOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THIS PATTERN AND AT THIS POINT
WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY...BUT WARM.

FCSTID = 11
ICT   55  84  60  84 /   0   0   5  20
HUT   54  85  58  85 /   0   0   5  20
EWK   53  85  60  85 /   0   0   5  20
EQA   53  83  60  84 /   0   0   5  20
WLD   53  84  60  85 /   0   0   5  10
RSL   55  86  58  84 /  10   0  20  20
GBD   55  87  59  84 /  10   0  10  20
SLN   55  87  58  85 /   5   0  20  20
MPR   55  86  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
CFV   52  82  59  82 /   0   0   5  10
CNU   52  82  59  82 /   0   0   5  10
K88   52  82  59  82 /   0   0   5  10

.ICT...NONE.