Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 27, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 AM MDT SUN MAY 27 2001

ZONES UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES WARMING MORE RAPIDLY THAN
EXPECTED AND TO UPDATED WINDS FOR A DEEPENING NW TO SE ORIENTED
TROUGH/DRY LINE STRUCTURE FOR THE AFTERNOON.  RUC2 HANDLING THE
EVOLVING SITUATION FAIRLY WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THAT MODEL SEEMS BE TO HANGING ONTO THE TOO DRY DEWPOINT AT
KLIC (FROZEN AT 32F) RATHER THAN TOSSING IT.

STILL EXPECT TSRA...SOME SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC IN SOUTHERN
THIRD OF CWFA...BOTH ALONG WARM FRONT AND NEAR DRY LINE.  CAVEAT IS
THAT OUR AREA NEEDS TO INITIATE BEFORE ACTIVITY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION FROM BECOMING WELL
ORGANIZED HERE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX GETS INTERCEPTED AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS IN SUPPRESSION AREA OF OK CONVECTION.

.GLD...NONE.

ENTWISTLE

COZ092-KSZ027-028-041-042-271800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 AM MDT SUN MAY 27 2001

MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO BEHIND A WARM FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES RISE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. IN THIS VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.l..DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO.

SVEN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-280600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 AM MDT SUN MAY 27 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS LINE.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. THIS...
COMBINED WITH A STRONG INCREASE AND TURNING OF THE WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OR MORE TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SVEN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079-280000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1143 AM MDT SUN MAY 27 2001

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AIRMASS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING TO CENTRAL
KANSAS HEATS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONE OR MORE TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SVEN