Hail in Kansas, May 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
226 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2001

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE PCPN ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER MOVING ESE
WHILE THE PCPN IN KANSAS TAKING A MORE SERLY PATH. SVR POTENTIAL
THIS MORNING MINIMAL...ALTHO CONVECTION ITSELF SHUD SUSTAIN ITSELF
THRU CWA THANKS IN PART TO LLVL JET.

BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO COME THRU OVERNITE...WHICH DOES
NOT LEAVE A LOT OF FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELPMNT THIS AFTN. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS DECENT...ETA SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A BIT OF A CAP AFT
18Z. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ABOUND AFT MORNING
CONVECTION CLEARS. FOR THIS REASON...CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOW CHC POP THIS AFTN IN I-70 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH. CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL HINDER HIGHS TDY SOMEWHAT. WILL GO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MAV/FWC.

AS SFC BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THURS NIGHT...LIKELY POPS LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET. 0/6 SHEAR AND INSTABILITY POINT TO SVR WX IN NRN ZONES IN
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER CONCERN IS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS ARE 1.3 ...BUT NRN MO FFG HAS GONE UP TO
ABOUT 1.7 FOR 3HRLY RAINFALL. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION HEAVY RAIN
IN NRN ZONES AND DEFER ANY POSSIBLE FFA ISSUANCE TO DAY CREW.

AVN/ETA BOTH HAVE SFC FRONT NEAR SRN BORDER OF CWA BY 18Z FRI...
WHICH WOULD POINT TO EARLY ENDING PCPN TIME WHICH GOING FCST HAS
WELL IN HAND. FRIDAY TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE WITH COOLER AIR SURGE AND
CLOUD COVER. WILL GO CLOSER TO MAV GUID.

.EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

LVQ

MOZ001>008-011-012-100730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
150 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 FOR HOLT...WORTH...ANDREW...
SCHUYLER...HARRISON...MERCER...GENTRY...ATCHISON...NODAWAY AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES...WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 2 AM.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI FROM SOUTHERN IOWA
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTH.  THOUGH NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE STORMS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND MAY
ENTIRELY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.

FORTIN

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2001

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

FORECAST: THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO PRINCETON...SINKING
SOUTH TO AN I-70 LINE BY MID EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE ALONG THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER.  AN ADDITIONAL
THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
KANSAS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DISCUSSION: THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
MORNING WILL LEAVE SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY CAUSE REGENERATION OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK:  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

LVQ