Hail and Damaging Wind in Michigan, May 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
424 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2001

NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LINGERING TSRA THREAT AND PSBL
SVR AND FOR CNTRL AND SE ZONES THIS EVENING...THEN SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY FRI NIGHT
OVR WRN INTERIOR.

THIS EVENING...LATEST WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED ZONAL
FLOW OVER CNTRL CONUS WITH SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHRTWVS...PROPELLING
SFC CDFNT ACROSS FA. TSRAS INITIATED ALG CDFNT OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY
AND MOVG IN MQT COUNTY ATTM...CAPES OVR GENESIS AREA 1000-1400 J/KG.
THREAT MAINLY LARGE HAIL AS WEB BULB ZERO 7500-8000 FT OVR AREA AND
FZRG LVLS 9-11 KFT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHRA/TSRA ALG AND AHD
OF CDFNT FOR BARAGA-IRON ZONES EWD.

TONIGHT...AFTER CDFNT MOVES THRU THIS EVENING EXPECT SOME WRAPAROUND
SC ON BACKSIDE INITIALLY BUT THEN AS SFC LOW OVR LAKE SUPERIOR PULLS
NE INTO QUEBEC FLOW BCMS SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC AND DWPNTS OF LOW TO
MID 30S ADVECT INTO FA WITH NLY FLOW...PER ETA. THIS SHOULD HELP
POKE HOLES IN SC AND LOWER TEMPS TO NR MOS GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
UPSTREAM OBS.

.FRIDAY...CONTINUED CAA IN ANTICYCLONIC IN 10-15 KT NLY FLOW...FLOW
WKNS FM WEST DURING DAY AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER MN. KEPT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN FCST IN CASE ANY WRAPAROUND SC LINGERS INTO
MORNING OR GETS TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INV AT 900 MB PER ETA
SNDGS.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLRG SKIES WITH BUILDING HI PRES...CNTR OF SFC HI
FCST TO SETTLE SOMEWHERE OVR SW WI/NE IA. LOOK FOR WIND TO DIE OFF
ESPECIALLY OVER SW ZONES WHERE ETA FCSTG DWPNTS OF AROUND 30. FROST
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD SW ZONES...LGT NW WIND OVER NCNTRL AND ERN
ZONES MAY KEEP TEMPS UP ENOUGH TO CONFINE FROST TO LOW LYING INLAND
AREAS.

.SATURDAY...SLIGHT REBOUND IN 850 TEMPS AS 850 MB RDG AXIS BCMS
CNTRD OVR FA. TEMPS WILL STAY COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN ERN ZONES
AS 850 MB 10-15 KT NW WINDS MIX TO SFC DURING DAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT....AVN WANTS TO BRING DOWN NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND
ASSOC CDFNT LATE AND EVEN PRINTS OUT SOME PCPN...ETA SHOWING SIMILAR
IDEA ALTHOUGH NOT AS NEARLY AMPLIFIED WITH WAVE. SINCE THIS IS QUITE
A DEPARTURE FROM PREV MODEL RUN...WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY FCST GOING
AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT RUN.

.EXTENDED...MODELS STILL AMPLIFY RDG FOR SUN-MON KEEPING FA DRY.
MRF-ECMWF WANT TO BRING SHRTWV THROUGH RDG TUE INTO WED WITH MRF
DVLPG AMPLIFIED UPR TROF FOR MID WEEK. HWVR...NEW AVN EXT A BIT
SLOWER ON PROGRESSION OF SHRTWV AND ASSOC SFC TROF THRU RDG. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN AMPLITUDE OF RDG TO BUILD IN OVR WEEKEND. SO
WL TAKE OUT SHRA TUME AND JUST GO WITH INCRG CLDS. WL INSTEAD BACK
OFF SHRA TO WED-THU AND BUY INTO MRF IDEA OF DVLPG MORE AMPLIFIED
TROF IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLES.

.MQT...NONE.

VOSS

MIZ001>007-009>014-110400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1154 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2001

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM
THREE LAKES TO CRYSTAL FALLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-2 IN MENOMINEE COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE TO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN BY 8 PM. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN AFTER 5 PM
EDT...AND IN MENOMINEE...ESCANABA AND NEWBERRY AFTER 6 PM EDT. MOST
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL...EXCEPT ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-2 IN MENOMINEE COUNTY
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO END AFTER SUNSET.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AJ/KC