Heavy Snow in Kansas, March 25 to 26, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CST SUN MAR 25 2001

BASED ON SAT LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ONE S/W TROF WAS DROPPING
SOUTH JUST WEST OF A 5H LOW LOCATED N/NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER
BROADER UPPER LVL TROF WAS MAKING ITS WAY EAST OVER CA/NV/OR. DECENT
WND DVRG PRESENT AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SYSTEM AT 7H/5H/3H AS WELL
AS GOOD CAA AND HT FALLS EAST OF THE TROF. ALTHOUGH A WEAK RIDGE WAS
PLACE BETWEEN THE WEST COAST TROF AND GREAT LAKES LOW, LITTLE WAA
WAS OBSERVED EXCEPT IN W TX/SE CO. AS A RESULT BELIEVE ALL MODELS
HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA OF STRENGTHENING THE MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS AND SHIFTING IT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SW CWA
EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE OCCASIONAL SFC OBS
SHOWING -SN FALLING NEAR THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH DIVIDED THE CWA
IN HALF FROM NW-SE AT 18Z. ONE WEAK VORT LOBE NOW EXITING KANSAS
SHOULD BRING A BRIEF END TO ANY LT PCPN OVER THE CWA. ANOTHER S/W
TROF WILL APPROACH THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET NEAR CNTL KANSAS AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LT
PCPN FALL JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AND MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF -SN.
ATMOSPHERE MOST STABLE OVER THE EAST AND WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING TONIGHT EVEN SOME DRYING MAY OCCURRING HERE. IN CONTRAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE ABUNDANT AND DIF PVA DEVELOPS TONIGHT...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE HERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN COMES AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

ON MONDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING
UP. UPPER LVL DYNAMICS HOWEVER DECREASES BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY AS
THE FIRST VORT LOBE EXITS WESTERN KANSAS TOWARDS NOON AND A 7H S/W
RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE VORT LOBE CROSSES
KANSAS EARLY THIS SHOULD BRING SOME -SN TO MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH
NOON SO KEEP CHC POPS GOING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WITH THE SNOW
TAPERING OFF LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

ANOTHER VORT LOBE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE FIRST MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS PROGGED TO ENTER NC NM/SC CO BY 00Z TUE. DVRG ALOFT BY THIS TIME
APPEARS SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THE DOWN SIDE TO
THE PCPN CHANCES IS THAT THE 85H BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS DOES THE BEST DPVA AND INSTAB. STILL THE SOUTH
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES BEING NEAR THE HYS AREA. AS A RESULT WILL GO
WITH LIKLEY POPS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EHA/LBL AREA AND DECREASE
POPS TO CHANCE POPS NEAR HYS. NEXT QUESTION WILL BE PCPN TYPE. ETA
HOLDS THE COLD AIR IN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE AVN SUGGESTS A
SLOW WARMING TREND OVER THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME AM CURRENTLY FAVORING THE COOLER ETA SOLUTION GIVEN THE
REENFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR TONIGHT AND NO STRONG WAA NORTH OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL HOWEVER GET SOME WARMING LATE TUESDAY IN THE
WEST AS LEE TROF AND 85H THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. ONCE AGAIN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BRIEFLY FALL INTO A
BROAD SCALE SUBSTANCE BETWEEN ONE EXITING S/W TROF AND THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHING.  RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SNOW GOING EARLY FOR
MOST OF THE CWA BUT WILL MENTION THAT SOME RAIN OR SNOW ONLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN MOST FAVORABLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST. STILL WITH BETTER DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND QUESTION
ON PCPN TYPE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS TO UNDER ONE INCH. LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE.

AS FOR TEMPS...CURRENT GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT NOT LOOKING THAT BAD BUT
GO WITH AFTERNOON READING CLOSER TO TODAYS READING FOR MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL GO A LITTLE WARMER FOR LOWS AND HIGHS
BUT LEAN TOWARDS CLOUD COVER AGAIN TO HOLD TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TODAYS MODELS LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AT FIRST GLANCE.
AVN/MRF/ECMWF AND UKMET WERE ALL CLOSE THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH THE 500
MB FLOW PATTERN.  AFTER ABOUT 28/12Z, THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
REST WITH DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
FURTHERMORE, THE AVN APPEARS TOO WARM AT INITIALIZATION, AND
MAINTAINS IT'S WARM BIAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MODEL RUN.  USING
THE ECMWF AND AVN MODELS AS GUIDANCE, WILL GO WITH TIMING OF ONE
UPPER SHORT WAVE CROSSING CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
QUICK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WEST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
BRIEF WARM UP.  THEN, THE NEXT SHORT WAVE COMES BARRELING DOWN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY.

FOR TEMPS, PLAN TO BASICALLY KEEP WHAT WAS GOING IN THE PREVIOUS EFP
THROUGH FRIDAY.  WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, ON TARGET FOR SUNDAY.  CAN'T
DECIDE AT THIS TIME IF WARMER MRF OR COOLER ECMWF WILL BE RIGHT FOR
TEMPS ON SUNDAY, BUT FAVOR THE COOLER SOLUTION.  EVEN THOUGH I WILL
LOWER HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, DO NOT THINK
LOWS WILL DIP ENOUGH SUNDAY MORNING TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION.

THANKS FOR THE COORD...AMA, PUB, ICT, GLD.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 027/036 029/039 032 446
GCK 025/037 028/040 033 446
EHA 029/036 030/042 033 647
LBL 029/037 030/040 033 647
HYS 025/034 028/037 030 345
P28 028/038 031/041 034 347

.DDC...NONE.

RB/BURKE