Hail in Kansas, June 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  AREA OF ISENTROPICALLY LIFT INDUCED TSRA OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS HAS BEEN STAYING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BUT STARTING
TO SEE MORE WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT BACK INTO THE CWA. MASS OF STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS AREA
HAS BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION.  APPEARS THAT THIS AREA IS BEING
FORCED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

EXTRAPOLATING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION EASTWARD WOULD PUT IT OVER MY
EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z.  CURRENTLY PLANNING ON BREAKING OFF THE EASTERN
ZONES AND GOING WITH HIGHER POPS IN THAT AREA FOR EARLY MORNING
STORMS.  SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY UNTIL ZONE ISSUANCE AND MAY
HAVE TO GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FARTHER WEST AS WELL.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO MONTANA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.  SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WHERE WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS AND TAPER OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA.  WILL ALSO MENTION POSSIBILITY FOR SVR STORMS IN THE WEST
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES PAST THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, WINDS SHOULD
RESPOND AND COME AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DRIVE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THURSDAY MORNING BUT THINK PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING AND
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE DAY AS NVA MOVES IN.

ONLY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS TO RAISE FORECAST HIGHS
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR.

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 075/055 075/054 083 361
GCK 075/060 074/055 077 361
EHA 077/062 073/054 080 371
LBL 078/061 075/056 079 371
HYS 076/058 073/052 075 330
P28 085/065 077/060 081 362

.DDC...NONE

GERARD