Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, June 19 to 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2001

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL/SVR THREAT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FCST WL BE BASED ON 12Z ETA AND THE 06Z/19TH AVN, WITH 12Z NGM, AVN
NOT AVBL.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WL BE THE FRONT...DRAPED FROM
S-CNTRL THRU E-CNTRL KS AS OF 18Z. IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE TEMP WL BE
IN THE LWR 90S, BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND LATEST LAPS/RUC
SOUNDINGS. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 20
AND 23Z AS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT...CAP
WEAKENS. BEST INITIATION AREA APPEARS TO BE SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS.
WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT ABOUT 230/12KTS, SERN KS MAY NOT SEE MUCH
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AIR/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR/CAPE OF 1500-2500 SUGGEST HAIL/WIND THREAT. UPPER FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT TONIGHT SUGGESTS LINEAR FORCING/TRAINING CELLS
PSBL. S-CNTRL KS WOULD BE MAIN TARGET AREA FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL,
BASED ON 850/700 THETA-E RIDGE ORIENTATION/THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE.
GENERALLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS RGN, WITH ISOLD HIER
AMOUNTS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. WL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL IN ZONES, BUT WL ALSO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
TONIGHT BEFORE ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE AVERAGING 3 INCHES/6HRS FOR MOST OF S-CNTRL KS.

WEDNESDAY, ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL LIKELY OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING, WITH THE 850 FRONT STILL
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SRN KS. USING A BLEND OF ETA/AVN 850 FRONTAL
POSITIONS AS THE ETA MAY BE TOO FAR S WEDNESDAY, BASED ON THE WRLY
UPR FLOW. 850 FRONT SHOULD SLIP S OF AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
ACCORDING TO THE AVN. CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMP FCST, BASED ON PROGGED 850
TEMPS AND EFFECTS OF CLOUDS.

EXTENDED PERIOD [FRI-TUES]:
ECMWF/MRF/UKMET/CANADIAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER PATTERN
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL START WITH A LINGERING UPR TROF IN
THE EAST FRIDAY...WITH AN UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SWRN STATES.
SOME EWD PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES OCCURS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE CANADIAN DOES SHOW A STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY. THE MRF SHOWS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE CANADIAN, BUT LIFTS
THIS TROF OUT OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE MON-TUES...KEEPING KANSAS VERY
WARM/HOT. THE ECMWF/UKMET WOULD SUGGEST VERY WARM/HOT MONDAY ALSO.
WL KEEP A DRY FCST GOING THRU TUESDAY, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING AOA
NORMAL BY SUNDAY, AND PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.

FCSTID = 9
ICT   65  80  58  77 /  70  60  30  20
HUT   63  78  56  77 /  70  60  30  20
EWK   63  78  55  77 /  70  60  30  20
EQA   65  79  58  76 /  70  60  30  20
WLD   66  81  59  77 /  70  60  30  20
RSL   58  74  50  77 /  50  40  20  10
GBD   59  76  53  77 /  50  50  20  10
SLN   60  75  54  77 /  50  40  20  10
MPR   62  77  55  76 /  60  50  20  10
CFV   66  81  59  77 /  80  50  30  30
CNU   65  79  58  76 /  70  60  30  20
K88   64  78  56  76 /  60  60  30  20

.ICT...
KS...NONE.