Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2001

...CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TSTMS 3RD/4TH PERIODS...

MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WORKING INTO W SECTIONS OF GLD CWA THIS AFTN.
WL WATCH BLDG CU OVER COLORADO COUNTIES BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE
DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING WITH CAP ALOFT. STILL LOOKING AT DRYLINE
ACROSS E PARTS OF FA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN 40S BEHIND
BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE DECENT INSTABILITY...SPCLY E OF THIS LINE. WL
THROW IN ISOLD TSTMS NEAR DRYLINE BUT NOT MUCH UPPER LVL SUPPORT OR
MOISTURE FOR MORE THAN THAT LATER THIS AFTN OR EVE.

WARM NIGHT ON TAP ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AS BREEZY SLY WINDS
PRECEDE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. TIMING OF FRONT AND CHANGE IN WIND DIR
IS CRITICAL IN FORECASTING HIGHS ON MONDAY. FEEL FA WL BE UNDER
WLY SFC COMPONENT EARLY MONDAY...THEN SWITCH MORE TO THE NE PER
ETA. THIS WL SLOW DOWN AMOUNT OF WARMING BY AFTN...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH 90S UNDER HOT JUNE SUN.

IMPRESSIVE 700MB UVVS FORECAST BY 00Z TUE OVER CWA WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM W TO E. MOISTURE FINALLY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID LVLS. WITH TEMPS INTO 90S...SHOULD HAVE
IMPRESSIVE CAPES BY MONDAY EVE. MODELS ALSO HINT ON A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY FIRE OFF A FEW STORMS
OVER E COLORADO BY AFTN BEFORE MOVG INTO NW KANSAS/SW NEBRASKA DURING
THE EVE. EVEN WITH BEST UPPER LVL DYNAMICS REMAINING N OF CWA...STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY POPS IN 3RD PERIOD. WL NOT MENTION SVR AT
THIS TIME.

PERSISTENT LOW LVL UPSLOP FLOW FROM MONDAY NGT INTO TUESDAY
GENERATING LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ANY CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY
EVE SHOULD BE ELEVATED AS AIRMASS TO BE MORE STABLE IN THE LOW LVLS
BEHIND STRONG FRONT. WL INCREASE POPS SLGTLY OVER GUIDANCE IN PERIODS
3 AND 4...THEN FOLLOW AVN SOLN BEYOND THAT TIME.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT CWA AS UPPER LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE
NWLY BY WEDNESDAY. FRONT COULD MOVE BACK ACROSS FA ON WEDNESDAY AS
WARM FRONT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE TRIGGER. THEREFORE...WL MENTION SCT
TSTMS ON WED. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS H7/H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER
ROCKIES. AFTER A SHORT TEMP REPRIEVE...LOOKS LIKE 90S TO RETURN IN
LATTER PART OF EXTENDED FCST.

.GLD...NONE.
KPL

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-180600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MDT SUN JUN 17 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
GENERALLY WEST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY KANSAS LINE. EAST OF
THIS LINE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD NOT
BECOME SEVERE.

LAMMERS