Lightning Strike in Kansas, July 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE SUSTAINED BY A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND BEING AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET.  MOST RETURNS ARE FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT A LOT OF PRECIP IS ONLY IN THE
FORM OF SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.  ALSO BELIEVE THAT MOST OF
THIS WILL EITHER BE DISSIPATED OR MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z AND IT
SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING INCREASES.  WILL
HAVE TO WATCH AND MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO MENTION
ANY EARLY MORNING PRECIP IN THIS ZONE PACKAGE.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME CONTINUES
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX. THIS MAX WAS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LAST NIGHT. APPEARS ANOTHER WEAK VORT IS OVER THAT SAME AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA TODAY.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING ABOUT THE FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT, AND ALLOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  PREFERRED
THE NGM/AVN MODEL SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE SURFACE FEATURES.  THE
SURFACE TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY.
WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ALL OF THE CWA TONIGHT.  AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROLL DOWN OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE
HAS CHANCE POPS GOING AND WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY
AS TRIPLE DIGIT MAX TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH ANY BOUNDARY MOVES DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, SOME RELIEF FROM THE ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDICES MAY
OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE SAME AREA AS BEFORE AND
LET DAY SHIFT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

OTHER THAN MINOR WORDING ADJUSTMENTS, NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED THIS
MORNING.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 101/073 099/070 090 121
GCK 097/070 097/068 089 221
EHA 098/067 098/067 091 221
LBL 100/071 100/069 093 121
HYS 103/074 098/069 090 121
P28 104/077 104/077 100 -21

.DDC...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY KSZ066-081-089-090 .

GERARD