Blizzard in Kansas, February 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CST THU FEB 8 2001

CHANGOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL IS SHORT TERM CONCERN...THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE
CWA AND AMOUNTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

GOING MORE WITH ETA SOLUTION.  ONE PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING EAST OVER CWA AT THIS TIME...STEADIER PRECIP PUSHING TO THE
EAST.  MAY SEE JUST SOME ON AND OFF PRECIP FOR EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FREEZING LINE AS BEEN SLOW TO SAG SOUTH SLOWLY SO MAY HAVE TO WORD
WITH JUST RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE EVENING.  APPEARS AFTER THE "WARM"
RAIN ENDS...TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWING SOME.  BY EVENING WOULD
EXPECT READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST
PART OF CWA.  MODELS INCREASING Q-VECTOR AND MID LEVEL LIFT 06Z-12Z
AS SOUTHWEST SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT EAST.  WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO
FILL IN AGAIN BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CWA.  THICKNESS VALUES SHOW
MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL.  AFTER MIDNIGHT VALUES QUICKLY COOL BY MORNING OVER THE
REST OF CWA...THUS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THESE AREAS.  MODEL QPF'S
ARE IN THE 0.5 TO AROUND 1 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT.  MENTIONED SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL...AND CONTINUED
SOME MENTION OF THUNDER.

ON FRIDAY...CONCERN SHIFTS TO DEFORMATION ZONE...WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION.  HAVE EXPANDED THE WARNINGS INTO THE MORNING.
CONCERN HERE WOULD BE SNOW FALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.  THIS COUPLED WITH OVERNIGHT GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD CAUSE
SOME POWER PROBLEMS AND CONTINUED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER SYSTEM OVER TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT
QUICKLY EASTWARD...SNOW DIMINISHES TO FLURRIES.  DECREASING CLOUDS
NORTH CENTRAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW COVER...WILL GO CLOSER TO THE
COLDER MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS.  MODELS SHOWING SOME RETURN FLOW IN THE
LOW LAYERS BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  WILL INCREASING THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY OVER REST OF CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

TEMP WISE COMPROMISE ON FAN/MAV NUMBERS MOST OF THE PERIODS...AGAIN
FAVORING THE COLDER MAV FRIDAY NIGHT.  SIMILARLY FAVORING COLDER MAV
HIGHS ON SATURDAY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH CLOUD COVER.
COMPROMISE OF MID 30S OVER THE EAST.

.TOP...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MNORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT
       THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
       WINTER STORM WARNINGS...EAST CENTRAL...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
       OF INTERSTATE 35...AFTER 10 PM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PF