Winter Storm in Kansas, February 26 to 27, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MST MON FEB 26 2001

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...

PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE WITH THE DURATION AND AMOUNT OF SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE TRI STATE AREA LATE TONITE THRU TUESDAY.

ATTM THE ARCTIC SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVG THRU OUR CWA. UPSLOPE NE
WINDS WILL WAS INCREASING LOW LVL CLOUD COVER AND BRINGING MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA. A WEAK 5H/VORT MAX WAS MVG
THROUGH THE FA AND A FEW SHSN MAY OCCUR BUT MOST OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE EAST.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL MOVE LITTLE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT THE LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SE PACIFIC TODAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...UPSLOPE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES POSSIBLE FOR THE FA ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THRU MIDWEEK.

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONITE AND A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE...MID LVL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONITE AND THE SNOW SHUD
INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. HIGH OMEGAS AND A
5H/DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SNOW
SHUD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THRU MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH...OUR FA WILL CONTINUE IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SLACKEN
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NITE. THE AVN WAS GENERATING LESS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATED THE MODEL WAS
UNDERFORECASTING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER S CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE
I AM LEANING TOWARD THE ETA WHICH GENERATES 8-11 INCHES. THE GARCIA
METHOD FORECASTS 8 INCHES IN YUMA COUNTY AND INCREASES THE AMOUNTS TO
10 INCHES OVER THE S AND E FA. BUT THE FA WAS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE JET TUE MORNING AND QPF TOTALS WERE NEAR
.5/GLD AND 6./HLC. THEREFORE I WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE AND GO 4-7
OVER THE NW FA AND INCREASE THIS TO GLD/5-8 AND HLC/6-9 SNOW TOTAL
BY TUESDAY NITE.

ITS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MOISTURE SLOWLY DIMINISHES FOR THE
CWA BUT THE COLD AIR REMAINS. A MID LVL LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NEBRASKA SPINNING A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACRS THE TRI STATE AREA WED/THUR. A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THRU THURSDAY AS AFTN HIGHS STRUGGLE IN ITS CLIMB TO THE
30S/40.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE UPPR PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT DRIFTING ACRS THE FA THAT NITE. A FEW SHSN MAY DEVELOP
IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW AND SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
AFTN HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR SAT
NITE AND SUNDAY A SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN US WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. -SN IS POSSIBLE AND SNOW CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY
NITE 9AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MONDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

VP