Hail in Kansas, August 3, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
144 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2001

UPDATED...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND HEAT WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST CWA.
BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ALLOWING DRIER AND RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN. HEAT INDICES BEHIND BOUNDARY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WHAT TO DO WITH HEAT HEADLINES...
ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
FROM DECAYING MCS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...TOGETHER WITH MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI...WILL MAKE FOR TRICKY FORECAST.

DRIER AIR HAS MADE LITTLE BIT OF A PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...STILL
SEEING SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST
2/3 OF CWA (KMCI 18Z DEWPOINT 80). LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARY(IES) RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SEE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY
GO WITH SCATTERED OR CHANCE WORDING MOST ZONES. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
UPPER DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT TSRA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AM HESITANT TO
PUT TIME QUALIFIER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...GIVEN WEAK
UPPER FLOW REGIME.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON PROGRESS OF DRIER
AIR...ALONG WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  WILL KEEP CLOSE EYE ON
DEWPOINTS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AND SEE IF ANYTHING
CHANGES.  SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR INTO REMAINDER OF CWA TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA.

FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES A BIT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN THE WEEK...SOME
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST...WHICH COULD PUT REGION IN MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. LATEST AVN EXTENSION ALSO
TRIES TO UNDERCUT UPPER RIDGE WITH REMNANTS OF T.S. BARRY...BRINGING
IT INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY MID-WEEK. IN GENERAL...MRF AND CANADIAN
DO NOT FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY
OF THESE SOLUTIONS...SO AM PLANNIING TO FOLLOW DRIER SCENARIO FOR
NOW.

WILL STICK CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.EAX...
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT SW OF A LINE FROM KMCI
TO KDMO.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT SW OF A LINE FROM KMCI
TO KDMO

MJM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2001

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
AS WELL AS EASTERN KANSAS...

FORECAST: THE MISSOURI STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT HAS ISSUED A HOT
WEATHER HEALTH WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF MISSOURI TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BETHANY...TO
CHILLICOTHE...TO MOBERLY. FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...INCLUDING SEDALIA...SAINT JOSEPH...CLINTON AND THE KANSAS
CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
SOME LOCAL RELIEF...FOR THESE LOCATIONS...MAY COME IN THE FORM OF
RAIN FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME RATHER STRONG...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION: A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
MISSOURI TODAY.  MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM...CREATING VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH HUMIDITIES...COUPLED
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO HOVER AROUND THE 105 DEGREE
MARK...IN AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT...WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.  DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL TOO
MUCH...LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MORE TOLERABLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HEAT INDICES THIS WEEKEND LIKELY WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 100 DEGREES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

MJM